End of the Oil Era Peak Food |
Rolf Englund blog om The Economic Consequences of the Peak
Why Was Peak Oil Wrong?
John Mauldin, October 14, 2013 The actual argument that makes the most sense is to call for
Peak Cheap Oil, which is something that we can quite confidently argue is now safely in the rear-view mirror. And someday, no matter how much the shale oil plays ultimately contribute to the story, those, too, shall have their days of ascendancy followed by a terminal decline. Chris Martenson, September 30, 2013 You may have noticed that I don’t refer to Peak Oil but Peak Cheap Oil.
Our economy is dependent on cheap oil for transportation. Ron Beasley, Sept 26th, 2011 Oil & Peak Oil Infographic
Zachary Shahan, September 17, 2011 I today, April 11th 2011, hereby declare to have invented the phrase Or ECP fort short Most of us have heard about the book by John Maynard Keynes "The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919)", even if we have not read it. In that book he warned of the consequences The Treaty of Versailles which ended WW I and probably partly caused WW II. I googled the phrase and found from December 27, 2007 an article by Gregory Clark on the economic consequences of peak oil I also found Economic Impact of Peak Oil, September 23, 2007 OK, that was very close. But not quite. När Peak Oil höjer prisena och ny-Hooveristerna kör åtstramning A Former BP Exec Explains Why Peak Oil Is Real [PRESENTATION] Consider this: To Jeremy Grantham, who oversees $110 billion at GMO, such a dramatic rise in the number of consumers means a world in which agriculture, as well as oil, metals, and other materials, is deeply strained. Befolkningsökningen - Population growth Som Financial Times Martin Wolf skrev 13 november 2007 var ökningen i Kinas oljeförbrukning mellan 2002 och 2005 lika stor som Japans årliga förbrukning. Bristen ligger långt närmare i tiden och blir långt större än vad vi har trott. Befolkningsökningen - Population growth The Peak Oil Crisis: Peak Oil Elasticity Oljan har tagit miljoner år att bildas. Och på dryga 100 år har vi förbrukat hälften av jordens oljetillgångar... Det finns en del skräcksenarior som har slagit mig på senare tid", berättar Gunnar. "Om oljan försvinner och det globala systemet inte längre fungerar är risken stor att vi går rakt in i väggen. IEA 2012 forecast that the US would be a net oil exporter by 2030 helped bring shale oil production to global attention. The International Energy Agency has sounded the alarm about a potential oil supply crunch and higher prices as key Gulf producers delay investment in the face of surging US shale output. In a strident warning against complacency in the oil market, the developed world’s energy body said key Gulf producers have been adopting a “wait and see approach” to investment, because of the perception that the US shale revolution would produce an “abundance of oil”.
Its 2012 forecast that the US would be a net oil exporter by 2030 helped bring shale oil production to global attention.
IEA annual outlook for the energy market Då är det väl ingen fara då?
Tar oljan snart slut? Jag var igår 13/6 på Nationalekonomiska föreningen och lyssnade på professor Marian Radetzki, som talade över ämnet "hur högt kan oljepriset bli". Det bestod till större delen av en kritik mot de s k oljepessimisterna eller "peak-oil-företrädarna" som hävdar att oljekonsumtionen kulminerar när hälften av alla resurser förbrukats. Detta kommer att inträffa det här årtiondet pga resursbrist. Debatten började den 12 maj 2005 då professor Kjell Aleklett, ordförande i ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas, skrev ett inlägg på Brännpunkt i SvD där Kinas stigande konsumtion anfördes som argument för att toppen för oljekonsumtionen snart är nådd. År 2003 var konsumtionen i Kina 6 milj fat och den kan kanske bli 10 milj år 2010. Det ifrågasattes av Radetzki den 12 juli 2005. Kinas ökning 2004 berodde på exceptionella förhållanden. Peak Oil Aleklett What cannot go on won't. There will be a major disaster long before China consumes anywhere close to that amount. Yet China bulls insist China will keep growing at the same rate. Peak oil says it's not remotely possible. China’s Energy Future Stein's Law: If something cannot go on for ever it will stop. "The increase in China’s energy demand between 2002 and 2005 was equivalent to Japan’s current annual energy use.” Peak Oil and the Second Great Depression (2010-2030): In the introduction he writes: zc The US trade deficit narrowed to its lowest level in four years in November,
The trade gap dropped by 12.9 % to $34.3bn in November, the smallest monthly deficit since October 2009. Imports fell 1.4 % from October as a fall in demand for foreign oil offset a record level of imported cars. After peaking at $102 per barrel in September, the average price of a barrel of imported crude oil has been falling.
IEA 2012 forecast that the US would be a net oil exporter by 2030 helped bring shale oil production to global attention. De senaste 20 åren av kinesisk dominans på tillväxtmarknaden har sin förklaring i oljekonsumtionen.
Med andra ord har vi en akut brist på olja, men det är inte en brist som gör att det saknas bensin när du ska tanka.
Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy Då är det väl ingen fara då?
The shale-gas revolution in America - on the verge of self-sufficiency in natural gas.
There has been a very strong and concerted public-relations effort to spin the recent shale energy plays of the U.S. as complete game-changers for the world energy outlook.
The really big picture goes like this:
On the faulty assumption that fossil fuels will always be a resource we could draw upon, we fashioned economic, monetary, and other assorted belief systems based on permanent abundance, plus a species population on track to number around 9 billion souls by 2050. There are two numbers to keep firmly in mind. The first is 22, and the other is 10. In the past 22 years, half of all of the oil ever burned has been burned. Such is the nature of exponentially increasing demand. And the oil burned in the last 22 years was the easy and cheap stuff discovered 30 to 40 years ago. Which brings us to the number 10. In every calorie of food that comes to your table are hidden 10 calories of fossil fuels, making modern agriculture and food delivery the first type in history that consumes more energy than it delivers. Someday fossil fuels will be all gone. Forget America’s fiscal cliff, Europe’s currency troubles or the emerging-markets slowdown.
Until very recently, our collective assumption was that oil was running out. That was partly a matter of what seemed like geological common sense. It took millions of years for the earth to crush plankton into fossil fuels; it is logical to think that it would take millions of years to create more. The rise of the emerging markets, with their energy-hungry billions, was a further reason it seemed obvious we would have less oil and gas in 2020 than we do today. Obvious — but wrong. Thanks in part to technologies like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking, we are entering a new age of abundant oil. As the energy expert Leonardo Maugeri contends in a recent report published by the Belfer Center at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, “contrary to what most people believe, oil supply capacity is growing worldwide at such an unprecedented level that it might outpace consumption.” Mr. Maugeri thinks the tipping point will be 2015. Until then, the oil market will be “highly volatile” and “prone to extreme movements in opposite directions.” But after 2015, Mr. Maugeri predicts a “glut of oil,” which could lead to a fall, or even a “collapse,” in prices. Brent crude jumped to $115 a barrel last week. Diesel is above the political pain threshold of $4 a gallon in the US, hence reports circulating last week that the International Energy Agency (IEA) is preparing to release strategic reserves. Barclays Capital expects a “monster” effect this quarter as the crude market tightens by 2.4m barrels a day (bpd), with little extra supply in sight. Goldman Sachs said the industry is chronically incapable of meeting global needs. “It is only a matter of time before inventories and OPEC spare capacity become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to restrain demand,” said its oil guru David Greely. Across the country, the oil and gas industry is vastly increasing production, reversing two decades of decline. Given the discoveries of the past few years in the exploitation of shale gas and oil Plateau Oil meets 125m Chinese cars Burning Oil to Keep Cool: Domestic energy demand growth in Saudi Arabia is cause for international concern. If it continues at the current rate, it could jeopardize the country's ability to stabilize world oil markets. Daniel Yergin’s peak oil commentary in last Saturday’s Wall Street Journal has set the econoblogosphere to chattering, Michael Levi did a quick round-up of reactions at his Council on Foreign Relations-based blog, then added his views. He expressed some exasperation about the “muddled, often faith based” arguing that goes on when peak oil is the topic. In 2011, we consume four to six barrels for every one barrel of oil discovered. The writer is the chairman of the Jinnah Rafi Foundation and honorary consul for Malaysia. Even though many economic pundits are trying their utmost to convince the world that it is in recovery, and that the mistakes leading to the financial meltdown of 2008 have been corrected, I have great concern that these experts, who did not see the 2008 fiasco coming, are ignoring the facts and seem to be in a state of denial. Globally, there are now seven billion people, and populations in the rapidly developing countries, such as India and China, are starting to behave like American consumers. Thus, these countries will now be competing for the same resources as the US, causing further global inflation. En bok, en författare stora förnekelsen" ... Anders Wijkman om det globala krisläget Will Technology Save Us From Peak Oil? Past peak oil - life after cheap fossil fuels Oil is the most strategic raw material. It can hardly be overstated how crucial petroleum is to our modern industrial society. Oil fuels the economy. It is the largest single traded product in the world. Oil Prices and the Fall of the Soviet Union The Relationship Between Peak Oil and Peak Debt - Part 1 Gail Tverberg Tuesday, 12 July 201 The Relationship between Peak Oil and Peak Debt - Part 2 Gail Tverberg, 14 July 2011 Denial of peak oil becomes more dangerous by the day. Coal provides 51% of the country’s electricity, and nuclear accounts for another 21%. Renewable energy contributes only 6.7% of the country’s energy needs, mostly from hydroelectric facilities. Ethanol works nicely as a slogan but poorly as a solution. The ethanol boondoggle diverts 40% of the U.S. corn crop to fuel production. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) calculated the costs in dollars per megawatt/hour of different energy sources as follows: Conventional coal power: $100.40; Natural gas: $83.10; Nuclear: $119.00; Onshore wind power: $149.30; Offshore wind power: $191.10; Thermal solar power: $256.60, Photo-voltaic solar power: $396.10.
Fears about peak oil are misplaced. Estimates of conventional energy reserves - particularly in America - continue to grow. China Surpasses US As Largest Energy Consumer; In its just released must read Statistical Review of World Energy, BP has many critical observations, the key of which, while not a surprise to most, is that as of 2010, the US is no longer the world's biggest consumer of energy. The new leader, with a 20.3% share of global energy consumption: China. Keep in mind that the Chinese economy is still (in whatever centrally planned terms it discloses) not even half the size of the US, thus one can only imagine how far this number will rise should China ultimately succeed in its goal of converting from an export-led to a consumer-led society. The extent of global oil demand is a subject that generates surprisingly little attention. Global demand in 2011 will go above 90m barrels per day for the first time in history, according to the International Energy Agency, This is happening even though the Western world is in the economic doldrums. China and India between them are home to a third of the world's population. As they grow, these countries are investing massively in infrastructure development – roads, buildings, machinery. This is highly energy-intensive. In conjunction with this, their vast and fast-growing populations are becoming wealthier, acquiring cars and consumer goods for the first time, while switching to protein-rich diets. When Monbiot then interviewed IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol, and he revealed that the peak would come by 2020 (Birol has since gone on record stating that no government is prepared for peak oil, and that conventional production may have already peaked in 2006), he repeated a previous Freedom of Information Act request to find out what preparations the government had made for peak oil: So I sent the government another request: in the light of what the IEA has revealed, what contingency plans has the UK now made? The government was warned by its own civil servants two years ago that there could be Ministers were told it was impossible to know exactly when production might fail to meet supply but when it did there could be global consequences, including "civil unrest". Yet ministers consistently played down the threat with the contemporaneous Wicks review into energy security (PDF) effectively dismissing peak oil as alarmist and irrelevant. The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) is refusing to hand over policy documents about "peak oil" – the point at which oil production reaches its maximum and then declines – under the Freedom of Information (FoI) Act, despite releasing others in which it admits "secrecy around the topic is probably not good". Experts say they have received a letter from David Mackay, chief scientific adviser to the DECC, asking for information and advice on peak oil amid a growing campaign from industrialists such as Sir Richard Branson for the government to put contingency plans in place to deal with any future crisis. Not just that the global economy remains severely unbalanced or that it is business as usual in an unreformed financial sector. Deja vu for the global economy Last week, the International Energy Agency’s Governing Board expressed “serious concern” that The only thing that could prevent another oil shock from happening before the end of 2012 would be another major economic contraction The Coming Economic Contraction Economic contraction, the lowering of material wealth standards especially for the middle classes, is more complex than the simple redistribution of tiny increments of wealth from the multitude to the aggressively rich. There is a more serious process in play. It is that those peoples and nations using more than an average of about 2.5 hectares per capita of the earth’s productive capacity must bring down their use (1 hectare = 100 meters by 100 meters = 2.47 acres): this can be done with some equity and social justice or it can be done in dynamic struggle to keep present levels, increase use on the old pattern, if possible, and push want and despair off onto others. Oil-producing countries have been warned /by IEA/to increase output Edward Burtynsky/OIL Peak Oil at - ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Dr Jonica Newby interviews Dr Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Prof Kjell Aleklett of Uppsala University and President of the Association for Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), Dr Jeremy Leggett, Chris Skrebowski, and Professor Robert Bea. Oil prices are likely to continue rising because the world's oil reserves are dwindling, In March, Rogers predicted that crude prices will rise over the next decade. (link) "Where is the oil? I still want to know where is the oil? You know why the price of oil is going up? Because there is no oil," he said. Just as we began to see at least the potential for peak oil and a rapid decline in the quality of some of our resources, we had the explosion of demand from China and India and the rest of the developing world. For a small window of time, about 250 years (starting, ironically, just in time to make Malthus’ predictions based on the past look ridiculously pessimistic), from 1800 to, say, 2050, hydrocarbons partially removed the barriers to rapid population growth, wealth, and scientific progress. World population will have shot up from 1 to at least 8, and possibly 11, billion in this window, and the average per capita income in developed countries has already increased perhaps a hundred-fold (from $400 a year to $40,000). Give or take. Den norska oljeproduktionen passerade sin topp för tio år sedan Every step of the food chain rests entirely on oil and cheap energy Peak Oil Peak Oil För tio år sedan, från den 1 mars till den 20 maj 2001, fick jag möjlighet att på Brännpunkt skriva fyra debattartiklar om oljans och naturgasens framtid. Jag föreslog också att Göran Persson skulle ta till sig Peak Oil-problematiken, vilket han gjorde och tillsatte oljekommissionen. Under fem år har jag försökt få industri- och energiminister Maud Olofsson (C), före detta infrastrukturminister Åsa Torstensson (C) och miljöminister Andreas Carlgren (C) intresserade av Peak Oil, men jag måste erkänna att jag har misslyckats. Den 3 maj är jag inbjuden att hålla föredrag på ett seminarium om Peak Oil i EU-parlamentet The combination of rising gasoline prices and the steepest increase in the cost of food in a generation "The combined increase in the necessities of food and energy creates a harsh double whammy for already stressed consumers," Johnson said. The last time this happened was in the recession that lasted from 1973 to 1975. Peak Oil |