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The goldilocks outlook
Investors are hoping for a Goldilocks outcome for the US economy,
with growth forecast to be close to 3 per cent, but inflation just 1.6
This may happen. But the consensus is dangerously, well, consensual.
The gap between the highest and lowest growth forecasts is down to levels last seen at the height of the credit bubble in 2007, and before that at the end of the dotcom boom.
James Mackintosh, FT 11 Febr 2014
Call it Goldilocks’ evil twin.
Throughout the late 1990s and mid-2000s the US economy benefited from the perfect “Goldilocks” scenario: not too hot, not too cold.
That meant the Federal Reserve did not take away the punch (or should that be porridge?) bowl from equity investors.
Today, there is no danger of rate rises but investors are instead looking to the Fed to protect them from the bears.
James Mackintosh, FT August 26, 2011
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the name that was popular the last time we were in this same position:
The Goldilocks Economy, the BEARS always come home.
Aubie Baltin February 5, 2010
I know I must sound like a broken record, but it bears repeating: If the cause of the bubbles was EASY credit and excessive money creation that eventually burst and brought us to where we were on March 9, 2009, how can doing more of the same produce anything else besides more of the same?
Guldlock och de tre björnarna
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In search of a Goldilocks exit strategy
Exit strategies, in other words: when and how will economic policy return to normality?
Jean Pisani Ferry, 16/7 2009
Whether or not they are deemed appropriate and sufficient, actions taken by governments and central banks to support banks and stimulate the economy are genuinely extraordinary. Budget deficits in several countries have entered unknown territory (at least in peace time) and central bank balance sheets bear no resemblance to what they were two years ago.
the interrelated character of current policy actions implies that exit requires an unusual degree of coordination between governments and central banks. This only needs to be temporary until monetary and fiscal policy can again be separated, but in the meantime the situation requires sharing information, thoughts and plans
– not an easy task within a single country and an even more daunting one within the euro area.
Forecast 2007: The Goldilocks Recession, John Mauldin
There are a few which see the roots of a serious recession based upon a collapse in housing prices and a manufacturing slump.
And then there is the lonely middle where I reside, which sees a mild recession (at least by historical standards).
GOLDILOCKS! THE BEARS ARE COMING HOME
(UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE)
Aubie Balin 6/8 2007
by Lawrence Kudlow
I don’t think there’s any need to desert the Goldilocks scenario just yet.
Kudlow's Money Politic$, 23/3 2007
Three Bears, No Goldilocks
Three Bears, No Goldilocks - Part I
Part II Crash Proof
Michael Nystrom March 2007
Social Cycles and the Coming Golden Age (Part I)
Social Cycles, Depression and Revolution (Part II)
Forecast 2007: The Goldilocks Recession
John Mauldin 5/1 2007
U.S. Slowdown; Self-Correcting or Self-Reinforcing?
"Are we in a new Era?"
John H. Makin October 23, 2006
The goldilocks outlook. This “understanding” became popular in 2002.
According to the goldilocks story, we will artfully and profitably dodge inflation and recession as we hop from sweet spot to sweet spot.
It is a mutant form of the new economy/new era conception popularized and universalized in the heady days of the late 1990’s.
The US does not have to save; we can run huge external imbalances forever; the Fed can endlessly run expansionary monetary policy; there are no equity, bond, real estate bubbles; and we can have rapid growth without inflation.
Goldilocks adherents believe this is being done as we thread the needle between various risks.
Max Fraad Wolff, October 5, 2006