Of course, we always keep in mind that we are still waiting for the Big One - US Trade Deficit and the Dollar
CPI - US Dollar - NAIRU - Real Interest Rates - Stagflation - Houseprices
Carry Trade - Demand and Supply - Monetarism - Yield curve - Hedge Funds
Stop calling it recession, we hate that expression
Parafras (?) of Tom Lehrer
Recession in 2007?
Over the past 20 years, governments built regulatory systems to avoid credit problems at one bank becoming systemic.
No economic expansion has relied more on credit and leverage than the one we have been experiencing since 2001.
We could see the first consumer recession in 17 years in the first-half of 2008. The consumer is likely to take the brunt of the impact from the depressed wealth effect that comes from lower home and equity prices. Our worst-case scenario paints a picture of a perfect storm for consumers: a $130bn tax from petrol at $4 per gallon, a combined $3200bn in lost home values and equity portfolios.
In our opinion the Fed will cut interest rates sooner than the consensus and markets currently expect – if economic weakness continues and the financial market jitters are sustained.
Economist Paul Kasriel at the Northern Trust has come up with
Interest rates, Recession or Depression?
A Temporary Power Outage
Turn off the nightly Larry Kudlow sis-boom-bah routine and utilize your own ability to see through the lunacy.