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Så kan det bli ny världsdepression
Jag är personligen något skeptisk till Roubinis förutsägelser.
Han hade naturligtvis rätt i att peka på det fallande bostadsbyggandet som en allvarlig risk för en kraftig konjunkturnedgång.
Men när han gjorde detta i september 2006 hade de snabbt uppdrivna bostadsinvesteringarna redan fallit under mer än ett års tid (diagr).
Att han då sågs som en Kassandra säger nog mera om det socialpsykologiska klimatet bland politiker och ekonomer i USA än om Roubinis yrkesskicklighet.
Danne Nordling 16 oktober 2010
Det som verkligen gör mig frågande till Roubinis prognosförmåga är hans förutsägelse för snart ett år sedan att vi då inom 9-12 månader skulle få en ny världskris pga att dollarn skulle förstärkas
Vad blir då resultatet för dollarn? Det aktar sig Roubini för att uttala sig om.
Men med åtstramningspolitik borde dollarn stärkas och fordra ännu mer åtstramning för att få ned handelsunderskottet.
Det är därför en amerikansk tioårig statsobligation bara ger 2,36 procents ränta (Englund).
Vem tror på dollarkollaps?
Det finns alltid bedömare som i vaga ordalag hävdar att utvecklingen kommer att gå åt skogen. Svårigheten ligger i att kunna skilja fantasterna från dem som har hittat fundamentala orosfaktorer av sådan karaktär att de borde tas på allvar.
En sådan person är den iransk-israeliske ekonomen Nouriel Roubini
Vad som skulle behövas är en utvärdering av varför Roubinis varningar inte togs på allvar. Hur såg de första varningarna i september 2006 ut?
Danne Nordling 16/3 2010
Roubini said he’s never been more pessimistic about the future of European monetary union,
saying Spain poses a looming threat to the euro region holding together.
“Down the line, not this year or two years from now, we could have a breakup of the monetary union,”
Roubini said in a Bloomberg Radio interview from the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos
Bloomberg Jan. 27 2010
In tackling the deficit, Greece faces a Hobson’s Choice:
whether to accept social pain with financial and economic stability, or instability. Whatever it chooses, Greece will face economic pain and difficult socio-political fallout.
Roubini Global Economics 27 januari 2010
Vi är på väg mot en monsterbubbla på finansmarknaden
Det handlar framförallt om spekulation i en allt billigare dollar.
Nouriel Roubini, Ekonomiekot 27/11 2009
"tro inte att det värsta är över"
Tongångarna från männen som förutspådde finanskrisen,
Nouriel Roubini, Marc Faber och Peter Schiff,
har inte blivit muntrare.
Latvia’s currency crisis is a rerun of Argentina’s
Devaluation seems unavoidable
Nouriel Roubini, Financial Times, June 10 2009
The U.S. Financial System Is Effectively Insolvent
There is a grave risk of a global L-shaped depression.
Nouriel Roubini, March 5 2009
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Roubini's Latest "Why Things Are Hopeless" List Hits New Record, 20 Items!
Be sure to read down to his last point, where he draws his bottom line,
a peak to trough fall in GDP of 10%.
Naked capitalism 16/11 2008
And I am really not making fun of Roubini. It is merely that because his messages are so consistently grim and have so far proven correct, one needs to find comic relief where one can.
Let me explain now in more detail why we are now back to the risk of
a total systemic financial meltdown…
This is not just a US financial crisis; it is a global financial crisis hitting institutions in the US, UK, Eurozone and other advanced economies (Iceland, Australia, New Zealand, Canada etc.).
Nouriel Roubini Sep 29, 2008
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Any solution to deal with economic overindebtedness must entail a reduction in the face value of the debt outstanding especially for households on the ropes and who have a strong incentive to just walk away which would be the worst outcome for borrowers, lenders, and investors
When a country (say Russia, Ecuador or Argentina) has too much debt and is insolvent it defaults and gets debt reduction and is then able to resume fast growth; when a firm is distressed with excessive debt it goes into bankruptcy court and gets debt relief that allows it to resume investment, production and growth; when a household is financially distressed it also needs debt relief to be able to have more discretionary income to spend. So any unsustainable debt problem requires debt reduction.
The time between Roubini making a dire forecast and it coming to pass has just collapsed.
From yesterday's Financial Times: The next stage will be a run on thousands of highly leveraged hedge funds
In today's Independent: Hedge funds could have an unprecedented level of cash pulled out by investors this quarter
Nakedcapitalism September 23, 2008
"You could have most of the US banking system wiped out,
so this is a total disaster."
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On Sept. 7, 2006, Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, stood before an audience of economists at the International Monetary Fund and announced that a crisis was brewing. In the coming months and years, he warned, the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence and, ultimately, a deep recession. He laid out a bleak sequence of events: homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt. These developments, he went on, could cripple or destroy hedge funds, investment banks and other major financial institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The audience seemed skeptical, even dismissive. As Roubini stepped down from the lectern after his talk, the moderator of the event quipped, “I think perhaps we will need a stiff drink after that.” People laughed — and not without reason. At the time, unemployment and inflation remained low, and the economy, while weak, was still growing, despite rising oil prices and a softening housing market.
And then there was the espouser of doom himself:
Roubini was known to be a perpetual pessimist, what economists call a “permabear.”
When the economist Anirvan Banerji delivered his response to Roubini’s talk, he noted that Roubini’s predictions did not make use of mathematical models
and dismissed his hunches as those of a career naysayer.
But Roubini was soon vindicated.
Source: New York Times August 15, 2008
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America's house price time bomb
Some American home-owners are taking radical action;
they are choosing to walk away from homes and their mortgages.
Roubini: "You could have most of the US banking system wiped out, so this is a total disaster."
BBC, 29 July 2008
“The reasons why the massive liquidity injections and policy rate cuts by central banks have miserably failed are clear,”
“We are facing a credit/insolvency problem in addition to a liquidity crunch and central banks’ monetary policy is impotent in dealing with credit problems.”
NOURIEL ROUBINI, November 26th, 2007
In a recent posting on his Global EconoMonitor site, (http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini), Professor Roubini argues that central banks’ attempts to mitigate the current market turmoil with liquidity injections and lower policy rates in the U.S. have not succeeded. “The reasons why the massive liquidity injections and policy rate cuts by central banks have miserably failed are clear,” he states. “We are facing a credit/insolvency problem in addition to a liquidity crunch and central banks’ monetary policy is impotent in dealing with credit problems.”
According to Professor Roubini, the current crisis will have a lasting impact. “The combination of a severe and worsening liquidity and credit crunch; oil prices close to $100; a worsening housing recession and its wealth effects on consumption; a weakening labor market; and a consumer that is buffeted by severe negative shocks means that a US recession is by now inevitable and that the rest of the world will not decouple from the US hard landing,” he observes.
On Friday I was in Davos in a panel on the "Ups and Downs of EMU" (European Monetary Union) where ECB head Trichet, Italian Economy Minister Tremont, a few other EU officials and myself were supposed to discuss the following questions:
Will EMU collapse in the future? Which country will exit first? What will be the consequences of a break-up of EMU? How to avoid that? And what are the prospects for the Growth and Stability Pact?
Nouriel Roubini, 28/1 2006
My remarks caused a stir with Minister Tremonti who interrupted me in the middle of my remarks, went into a temper tantrum and shouted - to the consternation of all participants - to me: "Go Back to Turkey!!".
I happen to have been born in Istanbul; but more than offensive to myself his pathetic burst of uncivilized anger was an insult to the decent Turks
who are currently trying to negotiate an agreement to enter into the EU.
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Bland oraklen på World Economic Forum i Davos i januari var det en fråga som dominerade:
Skulle bostadsbubblan i USA ta kål på högkonjunkturen?
En enda deltagare i världens mest kvalificerade panel, professor Nouriel Roubini, talade om en krasch.
De övriga förutspådde ett nästan lika soligt 2007 som 2006.
Niklas Ekdal, DN signerat 18/8 2007