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The "peak oil" theory no longer just comes from internet crackpots and conspiracy theorists; |
Is it possible for the vast mass of humanity to enjoy the living standards of today’s high-income countries? |
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Vad var det då som bröt den goda utvecklingen och ledde till den finansiella krisen? |
The US is not strong enough to rescue the world economy on its own. |
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How to prevent the Great Depression of 2009 |
We know that the current driving force behind this downturn is “deleveraging”. |
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October Home Prices in 20 U.S. Metro Areas Fall 18% |
Secular gods visibly fail: in 1989, communism collapsed; |
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What lies behind the credit squeeze is the combination of reduced trust in and decimated capital at financial institutions.
People and institutions don't want to deal with anyone unless they have substantial capital to back up their promises, |
The prosperity of a few years ago, such as it was — profits were terrific, wages not so much — |
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Gosh it was only six years ago that I cemented my place in stock market history by |
"Will the B-52s arrivwe in time?" |
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Hushållen blev drygt 280 miljarder kronor fattigare under tredje kvartalet 2008. |
Keynes offers us the best way to think about the financial crisis |
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Min sedvanliga julhälsning |
Det är ironiskt att Nassim Nicholas Taleb vunnit världsrykte för att han förutspådde finanskrisen när hans stora poäng är att det är omöjligt att göra prognoser. |
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Protectionist dominoes are beginning to tumble across the world |
From a European perspective, there is an acute danger of an extreme exchange-rate overshoot, which on top of the fall in global demand for European export goods could have devastating effects on exporters, much worse than anything we have seen so far. |
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Innan Sverige styrdes av visa män från Katrineholm ville socialdemokraterna införa det jugoslaviska systemet i Sverige. |
In a guest article, Alan Greenspan says banks will need much thicker capital cushions than they had before the bust |
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We are living through the painful end of an age of leverage which saw total private and public debt in the US rise from about 155 per cent of gross domestic product in the early 1980s to something like 342 per cent by the middle of this year |
En bank får låna ut 10–20 gånger sitt egna kapital. |
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“You still have a massive paranoia in the marketplace and you’ve got that safety-at-any-cost mentality,” . |
Was inflation sown in moderation? |
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We should not try to avoid 1929. We have already failed. |
/Nominal/ rates on three-month bills turned negative on Dec. 9 for the first time. |
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SEB tror att en eventuell devalvering i Lettland på i storleksordningen 15-20 procent kanske inte vore värre än ett alternativt scenario med hårda åtstramningar för att undvika en devalvering. |
"Basically, a giant Ponzi scheme" |
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Anders Borg lovar stötta Lettland |
I Lettland arresterades nyligen en ekonom av säkerhetspolisen, efter att ha uttryckt oro för valutans fortsatta stabilitet. |
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This is the endgame for the global imbalances |
Med en inriktning på finanspolitik måste regeringen vidta ofinansierade skattesänkningar och utgiftshöjningar. Detta strider naturligtvis känslomässigt mot alla amatörekonomers sätt att göra analogier mellan ett hushålls och statens ekonomi. Utan ekonomisk utbildning tror man att staten måste agera på samma sätt som hushållen.
Det är detta fenomen som också bidrar till att man kan ställa upp en teori om "ricardiansk ekvivalens". |
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Anders Borg kräver omedelbara reduceringar av bolåneräntorna. |
Interest rate cuts work their way through to the real economy by a number of transmission channels. |
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Att göra något i närheten av det Svenskt Näringsliv talar om är ju helt ansvarslöst. |
Regeringen bör ge en generell garanti för bankernas verksamhet |
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One might not expect much from economists, but one would surely expect them to warn us of a crisis on this scale. |
Ja-sägaren Heikensten |
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Peter Wolodarski ny politisk chefredaktör på DN |
“Why didn’t we see this coming?” |
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The vision thing |
Bostadspriserna är högre än vad som är långsiktigt fundamentalt motiverat och kommer därför att falla. |
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Felet med Mosesteorin |
Aktieägarna i Swedbank röstade ja till den föreslagna nyemissionen på 12,4 miljarder kronor. |
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För det första bör det vara fråga om mycket stora konjunktursvängningar. |
Drivkrafterna bakom dagens amerikanska kris och den svenska 90-talskrisen är i stort sett identiska. |
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Fed's weapon of mass desperation |
The Ka-Poom Theory |
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House prices may fall 40-50 percent |
POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL IMBALANCES |
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Every tumultuous period of financial boom and bust comes to be defined by a word or catchphrase. |
A mere 5.4% decline in the value of Citigroup's assets would make Citigroup insolvent. |
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Citigroup’s crisis deepened as its shares continued to slump in spite of a planned investment |
The main object of Alistair Darling, the British chancellor, is to inject more spending power into the British economy by a mixture of tax cuts and spending increases |
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Dow Jones nosar på index 8000 |
US economic, military and political dominance is likely to decline over the next two decades |
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It’s often forgotten that when Bush come to power in early 2001 the US economy was in recession. Since then there has been three waves of tax cuts – the last in 2003 – and a remarkable improvement in the performance of the US economy. |
Jobless claims surge to a 16-year high and the number of Americans continuing on benefits nears 26-year high. |
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De amerikanska storbankerna måste stärka sina balansräkningar med 1.000-1.200 miljarder dollar i eget kapital. |
Rick Wagoner, chairman and chief executive of General Motors |
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Paul Volcker |
Good question, Ma'am |
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Dutch insurer Aegon said it may buy a small U.S. thrift company |
Det är stabiliseringspolitikens kris vi ser idag. |
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Roubini's Latest "Why Things Are Hopeless" List Hits New Record, 20 Items! Be sure to read down to his last point, where he draws his bottom line, |
Inflation or Deflation? |
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We're All Banks Now |
Det hade vi ingen aaaning om |
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Det är kanske Milton Friedmans stadiga penningmängdstillväxt som är det enda som kan göras i stabiliserande riktning. |
Svenskt Näringslivs svar på Mona om Tony Blair: |
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Svenskt Näringsliv gör helt om, dock utan att göra en pudel |
Svenskt Näringsliv gör helt om, dock utan att göra en pudel |
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Den allt djupare lågkonjunkturen bör mötas med stimulanser från så många håll som möjligt. |
Det bästa västvärlden kan göra för u-länderna är att så snabbt som möjligt få slut på recessionen |
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"I'm a market-oriented guy, but not when I'm faced with the prospect of a global meltdown," |
U.S. retail sales dropped by 2.8% in October -- the largest monthly drop since records began in 1992. |
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Det gamla ATP var instabilt. En reform var nödvändig. |
I media inskränker sig pensionsdebatten ofta till allmänt gnäll över svårbegripliga oranga kuvert och problemen med att välja rätt PPM-fonder i ett alltför sort utbud. |
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Rearranging the Deckchairs on the Titanic? |
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Riksgälden kan idag ta över ett finansiellt institut, som i fallet med Carnegie. |
So angry is Main Street, you could club an investment banker like a seal pup |
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The Bank of England’s extraordinary 1.5 percentage point interest rate cut to 3 per cent is |
Om bromsen skulle slå till snart kommer det att påverka pensionerna från och med 2010. |
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Det var inte bara Wall Streets finansföretag som byggde ekonomiska korthus med hjälp av högbelåning under de år då likviditeten flödade och räntorna var låga. |
AIG is to receive a new $150bn US government bail-out |
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Kina presenterade på söndagen ett enormt stimulanspaket för att dämpa effekterna av finanskrisen |
Svenskt Näringsliv: Vi anser att aktiv stabiliseringspolitik inte skall bedrivas. |
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How can the next administration reconcile its longer-term goals for the economy with the imperatives of the economic crisis? |
Svenskt Näringsliv: Vi anser att aktiv stabiliseringspolitik inte skall bedrivas. |
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The big difference in diagnosis is between those who still think in terms of a conventional business cycle with output fluctuating in familiar snakelike fashion around a stable trend given by “supply side” factors, and those who believe that something more apocalyptic has happened. |
Nybyggnationen väntas nästa år falla med 40 procent, jämfört med år 2006. Antalet påbörjade hyresrätter har halverats. |
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The U.S. economy is spiraling downward into recession and gargantuan budget deficits. |
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Keynes had no sure cure for slumps |
Comment by Rolf Englund: |
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More pressing than discretionary fiscal action is getting the banks to lend. |
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The Fed’s target rate is now back at 1 per cent, where it hit bottom in 2003. |
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To put it in monetary policy terms, the Fed is boosting the supply of money to offset the decline in velocity, |
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The world's financial firms have now lost $2.8 trillion |
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The best recipe for avoiding a global recession |
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Carry trade funding currencies - such as Yen, Swiss franc, US dollar - are appreciating on a trade-weighted basis. |
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Why did central banks not follow BIS 1995 agreement? |
“I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interest of organisations, specifically banks and others, was such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders,” |
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Mr. Greenspan was asked when he knew there was a housing bubble and when he told the public about it. |
bubble in housing prices |
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A strong yen is causing concerns about Japanese export earnings, as |
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Mea Culpa |
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 I normala fall skulle de baltiska valutorna tappa i värde. Men eftersom länderna har ambitioner att gå med i det europeiska valutasamarbetet har man fasta växelkurser Patricia Hedelius, DN 2008-10-21
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Finanskrisen |
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Swedish krona falls on Baltic exposure |
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PIMCO’s Investment Committee to a man (no women yet) believes that capitalism is the best and most effective economic system ever devised, |
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The Economic Blue Screen of Death |
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A Capitalist Manifesto |
US Housing starts have fallen nearly two-thirds from their peak of 2.3 million in January 2006, and |
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Euroskeptics are easy to find in the Nordic capitals, and they won't accept that the financial turmoil has boosted the argument for the common currency.
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The current crisis reminds us that, in a free economy, the price of the greatly improved long-term performance that only free economies can provide is an ineradicable economic cycle. |
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For those of us who believe in free markets, these interventions are unpleasant. |
Hope for Homeowners gives the FHA the authority to back 300 billion dollars worth of restructured loans, |
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It's like an avalanche. |
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UBS will raise 6bn Swiss francs ($5.3bn) from the Swiss government. |
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The US Treasury is being more generous to banks and shareholders than its UK counterpart |
Informed observers suggest an additional $1,500bn in capital might be needed. So double this and assume it all comes from the state: it would still “only” be 10 per cent of US and European GDP |
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Dr. Doom: US Bailout Plan Will Probably Fail |
De fria sparbankerna bör inte rädda Swedbank igen |
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Reverse Leverage of Mark-to-Market Wrecks Banks |
New Bailout Package Helps, But More May Be Needed |
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Is there time to avert a Minsky meltdown? |
The true balance sheet of US Investment banks |
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Now that governments across Europe have stepped in with bold plans to bail out their banking systems, |
The U.S. government is expected to take stakes in nine of the nation's top financial institutions |
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Krugman har fått Nobel-priset |
Rolf Englund: |
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Mr. Paulson proposed buying $700 billion worth of “troubled assets” — toxic mortgage-related securities — from banks, |
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ECB policy rates are now at 3.75%, and it was not even the most important decision the ECB took yesterday. |
I don't say this to pat myself on the back, but to offer specific examples that these problems were knowable well ahead of time. |
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Some of the U.K.'s largest banks are expected to detail early Monday their participation in a bailout plan |
One can sympathise with Berlin. But sharing debts with Italy and Spain was implicit when they agreed to launch the euro. |
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No more bazookas. This time Hank and Ben need to roll out the tanks. |
The world financial system is teetering on the "brink of systemic meltdown", |
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As John Maynard Keynes is alleged to have said: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” |
Hank Paulson, the US Treasury secretary, was a man with a plan. |
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Swedbank har lånat ut 721 miljoner kronor till isländska banker varav merparten, 560 Mkr, är osäkrade medel. |
Sedan toppen den 17 juli 2007, har Stockholmsbörsen nu fallit med exakt 50 procent.
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Germany will guarantee all private savings accounts |
Has the international financial crisis exposed the cracks in the European Union's single market? |
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Palmes vän i FNL-gerillan
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For most readers, the commercial paper market is something you don't think about. |
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In the fall of 1992, the situation had almost spun out of control. |
Proposition 1991/92:168 om statligt engagemang för lösning av krisen i Sparbanken Första AB |
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Beginning in 1992, Congress pushed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to increase their purchases of mortgages going to low and moderate income borrowers. |
The program to revive the operation of the banks through purchase of the toxic assets faces a sticky wicket. |
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It will pass, but it won't work |
One European minister asked what would happen if the Treasury’s $700bn programme to buy up the banks’ toxic debts failed to crack the ice. |
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Timbro-evenemang |
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A real recession would quite likely end the current bear market in stocks, |
Krisen är här - fastän recessionen ännu inte har börjat |
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The $55 trillion question |
Central banks on Monday added $330 billion to the funds they can pump into money markets as more financial institutions ran into trouble in Europe and the U.S. |
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Once again, Anglo-American capitalism is a bad word and globalisation is next in line |
Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad |
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The most urgent issue is how to contain the destructive power of deleveraging. |
Ireland was once dubbed the Celtic tiger economy and a model for the accession states of the European Union. However, with its construction and property markets stalling, last week it became the first country among the 15 members of the euro single currency to declare it was officially in recession. |
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Let me explain now in more detail why we are now back to the risk of |
It’s 3 a.m., a few months into 2009, and the phone in the White House rings. |
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US can ride out financial turbulence if it follows lessons of Swedish crunch
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Ron Paul: |
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Jag kan mycket väl tänka mig att finanskrisen till dels är betingad av bristfällig tillsyn, illa hopkomna regelverk och dåliga belöningssystem i finanssektorn. |
Fortis |
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I en marknadsekonomi ska staten inte hålla banker under armarna. De som har tagit alltför stora risker och sedan drabbas av förluster får stå sitt kast.
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This is a difficult time to defend free markets. Nevertheless they must be defended, |
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There is something called the TED spread, |
Regeringarna i Belgien, Nederländerna och Luxemburg går in med 11,2 miljarder euro (108,5 miljarder kronor) för att rädda den belgisk-holländska finanskoncernen Fortis, som delvis förstatligas.
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Nyliberalerna tysta så det dånar
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Keystone |
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If September 11, 2001 was the day that we had to reassess our ideas about America's role in world politics, |
At first, nobody could quite believe Mr Paulson was incompetent. |
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Finansmarknadsminster Mats Odell vill ännu inte stänga Sverige för blankning. |
Så här ett kvarts sekel senare är det svårt att riktigt ta in hur extrema idéer som LO och socialdemokratin lade sig till med i kölvattnet av 68.
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The money markets on the verge of a nervous breakdown |
The real cost of home ownership depends on real house prices, interest rates and other housing costs (such as depreciation, repairs, insurance and taxes). But, above all, it also depends on expected changes in house prices. |
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Maybe we can let Wall Street implode and Main Street would escape largely unscathed. |
Om inte bostadspriserna i USA hade börjat sjunka hade inte det inte blivit kris och dagens räddningsoperationer hade varit överflödiga. |
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Enligt demokraterna rådde kaos i överläggningarna sedan det framkommit vid mötet i Vita huset
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Europe's vulnerable banks |
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Washington Mutual |
Over the past five years, stock buy-backs have increased at a remarkable rate. |
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The banking system needs another $500 billion to survive beyond the $700 billion rescue plan being contemplated by Congress, said Pimco founder Bill Gross. |
Ireland leads euroland into recession as property crashes |
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At the end of 2007, no less than $9.4 trillion in dollar-denominated securities were sitting in the vaults of foreign investors. |
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"Det var en väldigt stökig dag. Ingen har velat hålla i Swedbankobligationer,
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It was two years ago that Nicholas Taleb wrote those words in his book The Black Swan: |
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The crucial problem on this side of the Atlantic is that the largest European banks have become not only too big to fail, but also too big to be saved. |
For years, liberal Democrats in Congress and some Republicans pushed for banks and other institutions to make home loans to unqualified borrowers, and suddenly we find many of these people cannot repay their loans. |
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The fundamental problem with the Paulson scheme is that it is neither a necessary nor an efficient solution. |
DEBUNKING THE PAULSON PLAN |
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The time between Roubini making a dire forecast and it coming to pass has just collapsed. |
Stopping a Financial Crisis, the Swedish Way |
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How we have learned the limits to free markets – the hard way |
The shadow banking system is unravelling |
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Lehman bondholders could lose $110bn |
Money market funds in the US suffered an estimated $197bn of net outflows last week as confidence in their safe-haven status weakened after one fund “broke the buck” and others closed. |
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Over the past few weeks three experiences have helped clear my mind on this crisis. |
A systemic crisis demands systemic solutions |
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Capitalism in convulsion: |
"Who is responsible for this disaster? |
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This is one of the most extraordinary periods in U.S. financial history.
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An almighty crash has been averted, very narrowly. |
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End of the Wall Street investment bank |
In a week, the financial crisis of 2008 changed everything |
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The crisis began with losses in the $1.3 trillion market for "subprime" mortgages, many of which were "securitized" -- bundled into bonds and sold to investors. |
Cash for Trash |
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Många har förundrats över över hur vårdslös utlåning till låginkomsthushåll i USA kan dra in världsekonomin i en allvarlig kris.
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Questions abound over a $700 billion rescue plan for Wall Street |
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Extraordinary emergency actions by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to date, while necessary, are insufficient to resolve the crisis.
We should move decisively to create a new, temporary resolution mechanism. There are precedents -- such as the Resolution Trust Corporation of the late 1980s and early 1990s, as well as the Home Owners Loan Corporation of the 1930s. The next administration - whether it's McCain or Obama - will be forced to restore the Resolution Trust Corp., which was created in 1989 to dispose of assets of insolvent savings and loan banks. |
Hitler och kronkursförsvaret |
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Belåningsgraden på den svenska bostadsmarknaden ligger i dagsläget i snitt på 70 procent av bostadens värde. |
"Modern history’s greatest regulatory failure" |
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John McCain: (not Naomi Klein) |
The end of American capitalism as we knew it |
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1997-2008 har huspriserna stigit mer i Sverige än i USA |
U.S. will take 80% stake in nation's largest insurer to prevent global financial chaos. |
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The standard definition of recession needs rethinking. |
Recession 2.0 should go like this: |
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Shares of American International Group fell sharply after reports that the insurer had turned to the Federal Reserve for $40 billion in bridge financing to ward off a liquidity crisis and ratings downgrades. |
Stefan Ingves:
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The U.S. financial system was badly shaken Sunday by the failure of Lehman Brothers , the surprise takeover of Merrill Lynch and big asset sales by major insurer American International Group. |
"There's no question that this is in the process of outstripping anything I've seen, and it is still not resolved" |
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Värsta krisen kan vara över för finanssektorn |
"Det är uppenbart att man blåst faran över för bankkrisen alldeles för tidigt", |
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Lehman Brothers |
Barclays has pulled out of talks to buy most of Lehman Brothers, the BBC has learned. |
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It is important to understand clearly the concept of systemic risk in the midst of an intense credit crisis that coincides with the onset of a global recession. |
Barclays was last night considering a direct plea from Hank Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, to assemble a cut-price rescue bid for Lehman Brothers |
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Peter Lagerlöf, analyschef Carnegie, ligger på högsta plats på listan över analytiker.
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Lehman Brothers plunged 45% - its shares ended down $6.36 to $7.79 |
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Fannie and Freddie |
Brett prisfall väntar |
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Fannie and Freddie |
Planning to announce the decision as early as Sunday, before the Asian markets reopen |
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Alternativet då var att slappa växelkursen, alltså
devalvera. Efteråt sa många att det borde vi ha gjort redan
då, men jag hörde till dem som var övertygad om att vi gjorde
rätt som höll fast vid kronkursen. |
USA gör världshistoriens största bank-bail-out |
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The Great Game again? |
Rescue plan near for Fannie and Freddie |
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Banksocialisering i USA och roffarkapitalism i Ryssland och Kina |
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Nu är det dags att gå in på börsen igen.
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Den 18 november 1992 åt jag middag med Jan Stenbeck och några vänner i Gröna huset. |
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En australiensisk expert på klimatberäkningar har efter att ha jobbat med frågan i 6 år kommit fram till att bevisen för växthusteorin inte håller.
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De svenska AP-fonderna har över 10 miljarder kronor placerade i de konkurshotade amerikanska bostadsjättarna Fannie Mae och Freddie Mac.
Allvarligast är läget för Tredje AP-fonden, vars hela innehav utgörs av efterställda fordringar, så kallad subordinated debt.
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Lars H. Thunell |
Little attention has been paid to what a recession and accompanying spike in unemployment could do to a housing market already stricken by faltering sales, sinking prices, high interest rates and soaring foreclosures. |
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Nice name dropping |
Swiss Re's London Headquarters |
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It is not just about putting $25 to $50 billion into Fannie and Freddie (assuming that would be enough). |
Jackson Hole 2008 |
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Chancellor Darling warns that the economic times faced by Britain and the rest of the world "are arguably the worst they've been in 60 years". |
For decades, people had continued to pay down mortgages until their last cent was spent. |
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Metan är en kraftfull växthusgas - drygt tjugo gånger kraftigare än koldioxid.
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The perpetrator wasn't an asteroid or comet, like the impact that wiped out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago |
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Spännande läsa Johan Schück
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Martin Feldstein förklarar varför de amerikanska villägarna är ett hot mot världsekonomin
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Nu vaknar Riksbanken |
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Billionaires Warren Buffett and Pete Peterson |
The risk of a downward spiral of house prices is the primary danger facing the American economy.
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I Danmark tvingas nu Nationalbanken, alltså landets riksbank, att ingripa för att hindra Roskilde Bank att gå omkull.
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Will America follow Japan into a decade of stagnation? |
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“The topic du jour is Fannie and Freddie. |
Could the credit crunch destroy the Eurozone? |
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Det finns en optimism i den amerikanska kulturen, en framtidstro som gör att
man har större benägenhet att skuldsätta sig än européer. |
Snittpriset på ett småhus i Sverige var 679.000 kronor 1996, nu är det 1.782.000 kronor.
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Banksocialisering i USA och roffarkapitalism i Ryssland och Kina
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Fannie and Freddie |
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The return of the state: |
Fannie, Freddie $223 Billion Debt Rollover Problem |
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"Sedan i fjol har vår syn på världsekonomin förändrats markant.
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Banks becoming addicted to the liquidity window in Frankfurt |
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Fannie Mae fell 27% to $4.40, the lowest since 1988. |
What is a bundle of mortgages worth when nobody is willing to bid on them at auction? |
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The US money supply has experienced the sharpest contraction in modern history |
Freddie Mac och Fannie Mae är varken riktigt privata eller riktigt statliga.
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Rogoff varnar för fler bankkonkurser
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The global financial crisis is set to get worse, with a large US bank likely to collapse in the next few months, a former IMF chief economist has warned. |
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How U.S. banks sold home equity loans |
Det ryktas, obekräftat hittills, att planer finns att i östra östra Europa, av vissa tidigare delar av den tidigare Sovjetiska Unionen, däribland Georgien, Stalins födelseland, skapa en ny östeuropeisk union Eastern European Union - EEU.
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AIG offered investors an 8.25% yield for $3.25 billion of 10-year notes, and |
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were down 19% and 18%, respectively. |
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How to solve the financial crisis? |
No economy can live beyond its means in perpetuity. Yet....the US thought it was different. |
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Riksbanken försvarar sig mot de generande anklagelserna att ha förväxlat KPI-ökning med inflation. |
US Consumer prices soared 5.6% from a year ago in July, the biggest year-over-year rise in 17 years. |
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I nuläget är det åtskilliga europeiska länder, bland dem Sverige,
där bostadspriserna är mer övervärderade än de amerikanska, enligt IMF. |
Dr. Doom, about Nouriel Roubini |
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Man skall inte ha för stor tilltro till riksbanksledningar. |
“inflationary expectations” |
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Den internationella finansiella krisen är en kombination av två fenomen som påminner om tidigare perioder: |
Ingemar Bengtsson redogör helt korrekt i sitt inlägg på SvD Brännpunkt igår för skillnaden mellan inflation och förändringar i relativpriser. Men... |
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Where Are the Marchers for Peace? |
Var är de "mänskliga sköldarna" nu? |
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I hesitate to point this out, but... |
So-called Baby Boomers are those apprx. 78 million Americans |
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Nearly 25% of all homes sold nationwide fetched less than sellers originally paid,
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Prime mortgages are starting to default |
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Bloomberg is reporting Banks' Subprime Losses Top $500 Billion on Writedowns. |
Världskriget har startat |
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A year since the credit crunch burst upon an unsuspecting world, the big questions remain unanswered. |
Riksbanken bör skyndsamt ompröva sin räntepolitik och |
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A housing slump helped cause the credit crisis. |
Crash Proof: |
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We are all Keynesians again |
A lifelong libertarian, Alan Greenspan does not ordinarily advocate giving the government more power. |
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8 who saw the crisis coming... and 8 who didn't |
The /banking/ insolvency crisis will come to an end only as home prices in the US begin to stabilise |
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Credit crunch a year on: The losers |
US Savings rate |
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The Fed's rate dilemma |
Only luck can save America’s economy |
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Ett år har gått sedan den globala kreditkrisen blossade upp, snabbt och häftigt. |
It is almost exactly a year since the European Central Bank was forced to inject €95bn into the eurozone banking system |
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Let's see. It's Friday, what bank(s) is the FDIC taking over this weekend? |
AMF Pension sänkte sin återbäringsränta från 4 till 1 procent. |
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On the one hand, the BIS called for world interest rates to rise |
– Det är både så att ekonomin dämpas och att vi har ett pris- och lönestegringstryck i ekonomin, |
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The credit crisis and how to survive it |
Of course we need a functioning banking system. |
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Deutsche Bank gör ytterligare en nedskrivning på 3,6 miljarder dollar, motsvarande drygt 21 miljarder kronor |
How the banks can win back confidence |
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The Grand Summary: |
Björn Davegårdh |
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"We interrupt regular programming to announce that the United States of America has defaulted …" |
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac |
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In October 2003, Treasury Secretary John Snow told Congress ``we need to be on guard'' against the ``perception'' that the U.S. government stood behind the stocks and bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. |
Australia faces worse crisis than America |
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Merrill Lynch plans to raise capital through an $8.5 billion share offering. |
The world cannot grow its way out of this slowdown |
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Don't look now, but the end of the denial phase of the credit crisis may be in sight. |
Merrill Lynch tvingas till ytterligare nedskrivningar på 5,7 miljarder dollar |
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America's house price time bomb |
Roubini: "You could have most of the US banking system wiped out, so this is a total disaster." |
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What failed this time were markets. |
Och bankinspektionerna, vill man tillägga |
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The housing correction - and related credit crunch - appears to be at or near its low point in America |
Banks with federally insured deposits, which are limited in the risks they’re allowed to take and the amount of leverage they can take on — have been pushed aside by unregulated financial players.
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Nu är det värsta över |
The Homeownership Obsession |
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The prospect for the economy isn’t V-shaped, it’s L-ish |
The Paradox of Deleveraging |
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Homes purchased in 2004 and beyond are now at risk |
The proposed bail-out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac entails the socialisation of risk |
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You Know The Banking System Is Unsound When... |
Ford posts $8.7 billion loss |
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Ben S. Bernanke and Henry Paulson are under pressure to embrace the big-government policies of America in the 1930s, or Sweden in the 1990s, to contain the conflagration engulfing the U.S. housing and financial markets.
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Cherished myths fall victim to economic reality |
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1970-talet var ett stort undantag. |
Illa vore det annars Video |
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Mona Sahlin i Almedalen 2008 |
It is now almost a year since the US subprime crisis went global. |
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Nouriel Roubini predicts the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and |
Börsbotten kan vara nådd |
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SEC Panic - Shorting Curbs Placed on GSE Stocks
/government sponsored enterprises/ |
Fannie Mae is an organisation the US government created, but could not control. |
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The government keeps a private list of financial institutions at risk. Two years ago, there were 50 on the list, today it stands at 90. The government now acknowledges that IndyMac wasn't even on the list.
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Gatorna är klädda med såväl Frankrikes som Europeiska Unionens flagga. |
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Treasury Acts to Save Mortgage Giants |
US taxpayers are about to find out what their long-standing and (strictly speaking) non-existent guarantee of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will cost them. |
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Fannie, Freddie and You |
By Bush administration standards, Henry Paulson, the Treasury secretary, is a good guy.
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The dollar - FEER of falling |
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow: |
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The California-based IndyMac Bank, has collapsed |
Med grönt ljus från socialdemokraterna för alliansens missriktade nedmontering av den statliga fastighetsskatten finns inga utsikter till att Sverige ska få en vettig beskattning av fastigheter |
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USA:s resolution om riktade sanktioner mot den zimbabwiska ledningen föll sedan de båda stormakterna Ryssland och Kina motsatt sig den |
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The biggest political story of 2008 is getting little coverage. It involves the collapse of assumptions that have dominated our economic debate for three decades. |
"This is the third time in 100 years that support for taken-for-granted economic ideas has crumbled. |
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U.S. trade deficit narrowed in May to $59.8 billion |
This is part 13 in our Great Depression series: |
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The word began spreading across Wall Street trading desks on Monday morning: |
It is unclear if current shareholders would see their holdings wiped out - leading to the pre-market sell-off. |
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The rapid sell-off of shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac came after comments from a former central banker that they may not be solvent
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Matthew Simmons |
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De nordiska bankerna har tillsammans en utlåning på 450 miljarder kronor i Baltikum. |
A Black Swan Swims Across the Pond |
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EIA skrev ner sin prognos för världsproduktionen av olja 2030, från 118 till 100 mb/d. |
Caveat Emptor |
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General Motors shares have fallen to their lowest level in more than 53 years |
Goldman Sachs sågar Swedbank |
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Samtal om löntagarfonder (1982). |
Just as with mortgage debt, credit card debt is put into pools that are then resold to investment houses, other banks and institutional investors. |
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The American Constitution is missing a word. There was a word left out that our Founders failed to recognize as important. The word is "Bailout." |
That sound you hear is the popping of a financial bubble in housing, the economy and the market. |
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It needs to be recognised that in the months ahead there is the real possibility that significant financial institutions will encounter not just liquidity but solvency problems as the economy deteriorates and further writedowns prove necessary. |
Bank for International Settlements annual report |
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Let me offer a hypothetical series of events which could alter the current environment |
"Börsen på träsknivå" |
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If there were a Central Bank of the World its monetary policy committee would glance at today's inflation rates and expectations of future inflation and then raise interest rates. |
Removal of the famous "Greenspan put" |
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There are so many shoes dropping now that you could have the whole of Imelda Marcos's wardrobe falling off now. |
Trots den höga inflationen skall ska Estlands valuta fortsätta att vara bunden till euron. |
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Barclays warns of a financial storm as Federal Reserve's credibility crumbles |
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Citigroup cutting 9,000 jobs - $12bn of write-downs for sub-prime mortgages and other risky assets. |
Policy makers have slowly recognised the Minsky Moment followed by the unfolding Reverse Minsky Journey. |
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Att hon nu ser sig tvingad att lämna uppdraget som Stockholms ledande politiker är nedslående. |
Kvinnor är känsligare för alkohol än män, det vet de flesta. |
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Fondförmögenheten i Sverige har under en tioårsperiod ökat från 460 till 1 660 miljarder kronor. |
"Jag är ledsen - men priset blev för högt" |
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Dollarn i 5,89 kr |
Most baby boomers have their money in their houses |
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The Inflation Solution to the Housing Mess |
Stabiliseringspolitiken sköts i huvudsak av Riksbanken via prisstabilitetsmålet. |
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Wachovia joins the list of chronic anemics along with Citigroup (C), Washington Mutual (WM), Merrill Lynch (MER) and Countrywide Financial (CFC). |
The collapse of the housing bubble in the United States is mutating into a global phenomenon, |
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På det hela taget går det bra för Sverige. |
Kommentar av Rolf Englund: |
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Trillion Dollar Meltdown: |
Back in April 1999, didn't the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the Chairman of the SEC, The Secretary of the Treasury and the Chairperson of the CFTC jointly prepare a 140 page report on the Lessons of LTCM in which they stated that: |
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De fyra största svenska bankerna har idag mer än hälften av sina sammanlagda tillgångar i utlandet, |
Rädda Stadsbiblioteket En av våra mest kända och arkitektoniskt intressanta byggnader ska få en systerbyggnad. Det är glädjande att detta väcker debatt |
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Carl Bildt försöker få ära för det misslyckade kronkursförsvaret |
What Exactly Is The G7 plan? |
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Misslyckat försök göra en pudel |
Reuters reports that consumer sentiment has plunged to a new 26-year low. |
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Inget samtida fenomen är så genomgripande och så avgörande för vår tid i historien som internets uppkomst. |
"on the web since 1995" |
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Internationella media tycks nu fyllas av mer eller mindre beundrande beskrivningar av den svenska modellen. |
Different this time? |
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Vänstern har fallit ihop intellektuellt och moraliskt. |
Islamister är utopister. |
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Nice chart of UK Houseprices 1984-2008 |
1968 - Tänk om dom fått igenom sina förslag |
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Policymakers are studying how Sweden managed to rescue four of its biggest banks when its own credit boom turned to bust in the early 1990s. |
Comment by Rolf Englund |
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Mr. Volcker noted that when "concerns about recession are rife," the central bank will be tempted to "subordinate the fundamental need to maintain a reliable currency" to the impulse to shore up a flagging economy. |
US trade deficit rose in February to $62.3 billion |
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Why Greenspan does not bear most of the blame |
Comment by Rolf Englund: |
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Riksbanken får beröm för att dom ljög |
Case for an "L" Shaped Recession |
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Bear Stearns' bailout has echoes of 1907 panic |
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that potential losses from the credit crunch |
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I am puzzled why the remarkably similar housing bubbles that emerged in more than two dozen countries between 2001 and 2006 are not seen to have a common cause. |
De kallades "nyttiga idioter" av Leninisterna. |
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Subprime like The Debt Crisis of the 80's |
Many today are complaining about Alan Greenspan's monetary stewardship - "serial bubble-blower" is the most polite phrase that I have heard. |
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The evidence is overwhelming that most Americans have unconscious biases both against blacks and against women in executive roles. |
The great inflation cover-up |
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For the past 25 years or so the financial authorities and institutions they regulate have been guided by market fundamentalism: |
"Immigration increases the size of the economy." |
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The Treasury chief's plan wouldn't fix the problems underlying today's financial crisis. |
The rescue of Bear Stearns was |
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The day $2 billion walked out the door |
Banks are overwhelmed by the U.S. housing crisis |
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One way of measuring how perilously close the U.S. financial system came to melting down in mid-March 2008 |
UBS seeks $15.1B in new capital |
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Ett smaklöst aprilskämt? |
För dem som har haft en övertro på marknadens självreglerande krafter är förstås den internationella kreditkrisen en allvarlig missräkning. |
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Killing Fields' journalist dies |
Birgitta Dahl |
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Without help from the Fed, Bear's shareholders might well have received nothing at all, and yet the state is stuck at the back of the queue—guaranteeing a $29 billion slug of Bear's worst assets. |
Government sponsored enterprises |
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Two weeks ago, the world financial system hung by a thread as a battle raged among corporate leaders, government officials, portfolio managers and independent traders to control its destiny. |
Sverige genomgick under 1900-talet två stora bankkriser. |
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The Financial Services Authority, the City watchdog, has admitted to a catalogue of errors in its handling of the Northern Rock crisis, |
Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer on Bloomberg |
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US house prices have fallen at the sharpest rate in more than 20 years, and American consumers are now at their most pessimistic since Richard Nixon was in the White House |
Fed bailout of Bear Stearns |
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Home prices post another record decline |
Själv har jag sedan i maj 2006 i det här nyhetsbrevet argumenterat för att
det mesta talar för att dollarkursen befinner sig i en nedåtgående trend. |
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Den isländska centralbanken höjer sin styrränta med 1,25 procentenheter till 15 procent. |
Volvo PV räknar med ytterligare ett tufft år i USA med sjunkande försäljning och |
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"Tack 1968" |
"Ett förenat Europa med en regering, ett parlament, en beskattning, ett försvar och medlemsländerna som delstater, som DN har uttalat sig för |
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I dagsläget har Fed inte mycket att välja på. Men att ständigt skyndsamt agera räddare i nöden, när marknadens aktörer misskött sig eller blåst upp bubblor som spricker, leder också fel. Det är lika illa som att vara curlingförälder. |
Contrary to popular belief, the stock market crash of 1929 wasn't the defining moment of the Great Depression. |
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Fed's $200 billion loan scheme won't work |
It is déjà vu for those who remember previous emerging market crises: |
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The Federal Reserve, struggling to prevent a meltdown in financial markets, cut the rate on direct loans to banks and became lender of last resort to the biggest dealers in U.S. government bonds. |
How the Fed avoided the Northern Rock trap |
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The current financial crisis in the US is likely to be judged in retrospect as the most wrenching since the end of the second world war. |
U.S. Trade Deficit: |
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En dollar kostar nu mindre än 6 kronor, |
Free fall |
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In May 2006, Alan Greenspan, the former Chairman of the Fed, noted: |
New figures coming out of the US economy confirms that in almost every respect it is doing significantly better than expected. |
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Yields on five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities fell below zero |
Ben Bernanke in dilemma over bank bail-out |
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The credit world is aligning itself into political factions |
Baby boomers and the post-boomer generations are facing a retirement crisis way beyond the worries about a collapse of Social Security |
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"jingle mail" |
Not even Alan Greenspan |
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A key cause of the present slowdown and potential recession was not a tightening of monetary policy but the bursting of the house-price bubble |
You Walk Away is an innovative new service that provides homeowners with a $1,000 information kit on how to walk away from a losing real estate bet.
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Ben Bernanke: "We have a problem" |
Det unika Sverige är inte längre så unikt. |
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When Texas and Ohio vote in Tuesday's Democratic primaries, they may bring Hillary Clinton's campaign for the presidency to an end. |
The bailout was nothing more than an agreement by the ratings agencies to pretend that the monolines were still worthy of AAA |
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Dollar low against the euro for the fourth day in a row - touched 1.5239 |
In today's Wall Street Journal, Allan Meltzer adds to the growing scrutiny of Ben Bernanke: |
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Chasing the Neutral Rate Down: |
Turmoil reveals the inadequacy of Basel II |
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New home sales slipped to a nearly 13-year low in January at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 588,000,
sales fell 33.9% from the same month last year and hit their lowest levels since February 1995. |
New figures coming out of the US economy confirms that in almost every respect it is doing significantly better than expected. |
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The financial system is a subsidiary of the state. |
En dollar kostar nu 6,20 kronor. |
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Sales of existing homes in the U.S. fell in January to the lowest level since records began nine years ago and prices slid |
Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel-prize winning economist, |
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More than 10m would have negative equity in their homes and more than 2m foreclosures would take place over the next two years. |
Here is exactly what we are facing, right now: |
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The new conundrum |
The monoline insurers, as the news goes, will be split up into bad company/good company entities, |
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Stage I is to provide liquidity to the banking system at high interest rates. We passed out of Stage I at the end of last year. |
Ingrid Matthäus-Maier, a member of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the CEO of the state-owned KfW banking group |
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Like a 1930s bank run |
A group of banks is preparing to inject $2bn to $3bn into the troubled bond insurer Ambac,
to avoid a sharp cut in its triple-A credit rating that could trigger wider financial market turmoil. |
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Svenskarna är rikare än någonsin tack vare de senaste årens ökade bostadspriser. |
Ã…rtionden med höga skatter har proletariserat den svenska medelklassen |
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Credit markets were thrown into fresh turmoil on Wednesday as the cost of protecting the debt of US and European companies against default surged to all-time highs. |
The pressure from politicians and the media and the fear of a banking meltdown make it all but inevitable that the Fed will go on onto the path of interest rate cuts. |
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KKR Financial, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts listed arm, said it had begun talks with creditors |
America's economy risks mother of all meltdowns |
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Northern Rock to be nationalized |
Socialisterna har alltid velat förstatliga bankerna, och inte bara bankerna: |
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Sverige har tagit ett rejält kliv uppåt i OECD:s så kallade välståndsliga. |
Now, after more than three decades in the wilderness, Keynesian-style fiscal policy seems to be staging a comeback. |
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The collapse of the auction-rate security market |
U.S. trade deficit december $58.8 billion |
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Kosovofrågan känslig – säger Bildt
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When Kosovo declares its independence on Sunday, the territory's veteran guerrillas will celebrate by flying the traditional black-and-red eagle flags that unite ethnic Albanians everywhere.
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That the latest government rescue package will allow IKB Deutsche Industriebank shareholders to walk away with money in their pockets is a disgrace, and an incitement to imprudent lending at other banks. |
Sverige har föresatt sig att genomföra stålbadet i skuldfällan. Det betyder att Nordbankens stabilitet i finansmarknadens ögon inte kan eller får ifrågasättas. |
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Defaults in the US housing market are spreading from sub-prime |
Eliot Spitzer, New York governor, gave bond insurers three to five business days to find fresh capital, or face a potential break-up by state regulators |
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På ledarsidan i fredagens DN fanns en fräck, nära nog skamlös, kolumn |
Häromdagen uppmärksammade jag Lars Jonungs kolumn i DN 8/2 om att
"Perssons påstående att han tog Sverige ur krisen är inget annat än en myt." |
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Nej, myten om Göran Persson är ingen myt |
Jonung kritiserar Göran Perssons insatser när Sverige tog sig ur 90-talskrisen. |
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Next Bubble Is Forming: |
Bankers, like gangs, just get carried away |
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Six of the nation's largest mortgage lenders have temporarily stopped foreclosure proceedings |
In a short series of briefs we will analyze how single minded monetary policies and misguided micro oriented risk management created today's financial markets' mess. |
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I invented a new index yesterday. |
Warren Buffett to the rescue? |
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A repeat of the Great Depression is unlikely |
The Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown: |
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Consumer borrowing slowing down in December |
More than $6.7 trillion has been wiped from world stock markets |
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The Credit Crisis is Simply Getting Worse |
If Citigroup could have borrowed reserves from the Fed at 3-4% |
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Sharia courts? Get off your knees, archbishop |
The president Sarkozy claimed that the French republic's obsession with secularism had underestimated the importance of spiritual aspiration. That is what Archbishop Williams thinks, too. |
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Pia Gripenberg intervjuar Handelsbankens vd Pär Boman: |
Visst finns det likheter mellan dagens ekonomiska läge och 90-talskrisen. Men skillnaderna är större. |
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What is good for Ambac, the bond insurer, is good for the country. |
Fears about corporate and commercial property debt reached new heights in the US and Europe on Friday |
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"Perssons påstående att han tog Sverige ur krisen är inget annat än en myt." |
Lars Jonung, sanningen och kronkursförsvaret |
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Kan detta vara lösningen på Subprime-krisen? |
The recession of 2008 will be a longer, "U-shaped" affair, driven by an unusual, persistent drop in consumption and investment. |
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Nobody wants to see a repeat of the 1930s when bank failures ushered in the Depression. |
Counting the funds Kuwait and Korea committed to Merrill and Singapore and Kuwait committed to Citi, |
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Fed's interest-rate cuts may be a quick fix for 2008, |
Two points shine out about the financial system over the past three decades: |
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Who gives a damn about inflation? |
"Heroes: What Great Statesmen Have to Teach Us" |
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A recession is a normal part of the business cycle. |
It it is far from obvious that we face a major worldwide recession. |
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The goal seems to be to avoid a 2008 recession at all costs. |
Det var inte inflationen - det var Depressionen |
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Wall Street bond rating agencies could downgrade two big bond insurers, Ambac Financial Group and MBIA, as early as today |
Meredith Whitney, whose research note on Citigroup in late October triggered a $369bn sell-off in global equities |
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En dag på Finanspolitiska Rådet |
As a boom leads to euphoria, Minsky said, banks and other commercial lenders extend credit to ever more dubious borrowers, often creating new financial instruments to do the job |
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New home sales at 774,000, down 26 percent from the 1.05 million sales in 2006. |
A combination of massive fiscal and monetary easing may reignite US consumer spending.
The fundamental imbalance would remain. It would doom the world to repeat today's financial mess |
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A fundamental question arises: |
It's the housing market, stupid. |
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The intensifying credit crunch is so severe that |
The debate about recession is now about how deep and global its impact will be. |
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- Grunden för ekonomisk tillväxt är efterfrågan. |
1992 |
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A recession of global dimensions? |
Bush och Fed stimulerade |
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2007 nearly $4.50 of credit was being generated per $1 of GDP growth. |
Comment by Rolf Englund (webmaster): |
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Monoline meltdown? |
Collateralised-debt obligations (CDOs), structured investment vehicles (SIVs) and |
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Banks 'may need an extra $143bn' |
I believe the monoline insurance companies like Ambac and MBIA are in worse shape than most realize, |
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So Far, Hype Exceeds Progress on Bond Insurer Rescue Front |
Permanent income hypothesis |
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The issue here is not whether there is going to be a recession in the world or individual countries, but what governments and central banks could do about it. |
Volvo Personvagnar gjorde en förlust för helåret 2007 |
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"I'm not predicting the collapse of the financial system." |
In times of panic, grown-ups keep their nerve. |
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As long as inventory is high and sales are low, prices will continue to fall. |
It's the housing market, stupid. |
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Leading US banks are under pressure from New York state's insurance regulator to provide as much as $15bn to support struggling bond insurers. |
The trigger for the Fed action was the move on Friday by Fitch to strip the US monoline insurer AMBAC of its `AAA' rating, |
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Capitalism involves booms and busts. |
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I anledning av DNs huvudledare om att |
Svenskt Näringsliv: |
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US bond insurer MBIA has disclosed it guarantees $30.6bn in complex debt investments linked to the US housing slump, BBC |
Interest rate cuts work their way through to the real economy by a number of transmission channels. |
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Three-month Libor, overnight index swaps and interbank liquidity: they are all so 2007.
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Är det början till slutet på en gyllene global låginflationsperiod som vi nu bevittnar? |
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Carnegie Mellon economist Allan Meltzer, who is finishing the second volume of his history of the Federal Reserve, |
Bush: "We are all Keynesians again" |
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... the fate of global bond insurers and the $2,400bn of debt they guarantee.
Ambac, one of the biggest bond insurers, or so-called monolines, was downgraded |
America's current account deficit is due more to bubbles in asset prices than to a misaligned dollar. |
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America's current account deficit is due more to bubbles in asset prices than to a misaligned dollar. |
George Soros: |
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The apparatus of the US government is now in rescue mode. |
The real problem is the "monoline insurers" like ACA, Ambac, and MBIA. |
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The next banking crisis on the way |
Stagflation. Plain and simple. |
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Wall Street bonuses fell to $33.2bn, the New York state comptroller said. |
De fem största amerikanska investmentbankerna har betalat bonusar om totalt 39 miljarder dollar, |
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Foreign funds lead $21bn US bank rescue |
Merrill Lynch loss after $14.1bn write-down related to sub-prime mortgages. |
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Den underliggande inflationen, även kallad KPIX, hamnade på 2,0 procent. |
US annual inflation, 4.1 per cent, |
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Högsta svenska inflationssiffran sedan 1993 |
Priserna steg med 3,5 procent dec-dec men inte mycket av allmänna prisstegringar. |
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150 persons ? Maximum size of encounters in which in one knows the identity of all others, the 'socially large world,' (Dunbar's number).
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Människan är ett flockdjur. Det förklarar kanske vårt intresse för Paris Hilton? |
