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Senaste Nytt 2007 - Latest news 2007 at Rolf Englund IntCom internetional

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US dollar lowest level against the yen since May 2005, 105.97.
BBC, January 16

Why America must have a fiscal stimulus
Lawrence Summers

Citigroup suffers $9.8 billion loss

The Shadow Banking System
is at the center of the problem.

Bill Gross

There are many asset classes in the credit market that have still to hit trouble - securities credit market and, of course,
the market for credit default swaps,
possibly the biggest Ponzi game in all history.
Wolfgang Münchau

Porsche has decided to select HCM City as the place to enter Vietnam.
“This is the right time for Porsche in Vietnam,”
said Andreas Klingler, general director of Prestige Sports Car Co.
“Drivers in the high-end market are looking for sporty, cutting-edge masterpieces that personify their bold personalities and express their exquisite sophistication.
Porsche is a brand that epitomizes this.”
Saigon Times

Morgan Stanley has issued a full recession alert for the US economy, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

See also:
Wake up to the dangers of a deepening crisis, Lawrence Summers, FT

Recession in America looks increasingly likely, The Economist


US Trade Deficit grew 9.3 percent, the most in two years, to $63.1 bn,

Guldpriset över 880 dollar, den högsta noteringen sedan början av 80-talet.
Svenska skattebetalare kan ha gått miste om runt en miljard kronor i intäkter när Riksbanken sålt

Should wealth-holders come to doubt the determination of the Federal Reserve to preserve the dollar’s domestic purchasing power, they might dump it, with devastating effects on its external value, long-term US interest rates and the US economy, Financial Times editorial

Monetarism and Cataclysm

The ECB, Fed and British bailouts involve a serious problem - repayment.
$540 million (RE: should read billions, I guess),
Martin Hutchinson

More about Injection

Subprime was part of the general craziness... CDO and SIV.
Tony Jackson, FT

Conduits or structured investment vehicles (SIVs) and Disintermediation

Orsakerna till den svenska ekonomiska eftersläpningen ligger främst i att vi fick två djupa konjunkturnedgångar. Den på 1970-talet var direkt betingad av 1971 års skattereform.
Den på 1990-talet orskades indirekt av den fördelningspolitiskt försiktiga avvecklingen av denna reform,
Danne Nordling

Real GDP actually fell in the United States from 1973 through 1975 - diagram
Eftersläpningen - Perssons skuldsanering - 90-talskrisen och kronkursförsvaret

Most estimates put the eventual tally for defaults by America’s subprime borrowers at $200 billion-300 billion, The Economist

Subprime/Hedgefunds, Moral Hazard, Banks...

Subprime borrowers will probably default on $200-300 bn of mortgages. Hardly enough to imperil the world economy. For that, you need the baroque superstructure of mortgage-backed derivatives,
The Economist

See also: (SIVs) and Disintermediation

Fastighetsskatten var en vinnarfråga för de borgerliga i valrörelsen 2006. Sedan dess har oklara och ryckiga besked skapat mer misstämning än glädje,

Mer om Fastighetsskatten

Chrysler CEO: We're 'operationally' bankrupt, CNN

See also: General Motors is a canary in this country’s economic coal mine; a forerunner for what’s to come for the broader economy Bill Gross

Merrill Lynch & Co Inc may get up to $5 billion in a capital infusion from Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings, MSN

Friedrich Hayek once said that he knew few people who had made money from acting on economic forecasts, but a good many who had made it from selling them. It is difficult for those in any profession to stand out against the spirit of the times, Samuel Brittan FT

See also: Samuel Brittan - Hayek

UBS faces rebellion over fund injection, FT

See also: The purchases were made via convertible securities that pay stunning yields of 9% and 11%, which essentially classify UBS and Citigroup as junk-bond-level credits.

The owners of WestLB are to inject up to inject 2.90 bn dollar into the troubled German public sector bank
FT January 21 2008

Bearing Asset Management's Kevin Duffy and Bill Laggner, who warned about "value traps" back when they were classic shorts. Note that MBIA, which closed at $20 today, was $60 when this was published.
"This Time It’s Value Traps", published 6/13/2007

Although nearly 70% of the Americans do fear a recession, the possibility of a major crisis is not considered.
Sharon-Brigitte Kayser, RE: Highly recommended

/The rating agency/ Fitch disclosed as recently as March 2007 that
their model for rating CDOs assumed low to single digit home price appreciation forever into the future.
Michael Shedlock, December 31, 2007

Greenspan's errors in judgment seemed so obvious they beg the questions:
Why did he make them?

Efforts ineffective, aimed at containing a subprime credit crisis,
not a rapidly spreading prime-credit, solvency crisis
that is leading the U.S. economy into recession.
John Makin January 3, 2008

Central bankers now operate in a world where monetary policy influences only a small part of the fluctuations in overall liquidity in the economy.
Mohamed El-Erian, FT January 16 2008
The writer is co-chief executive and co-chief investment officer of Pimco.
He was previously president and CEO of Harvard Management Company

Prepare for a global economic downturn, but not a meltdown
This is not really a “subprime” or “credit” crisis, as it is frequently called. This is a banking crisis.
Wolfgang Munchau

Why America must have a fiscal stimulus
Lawrence Summers

What's most disturbing about our collective long-term prospects is that all anyone really talks about today is how much and how quickly the Fed needs to cut interest rates
Tim Iacono

Krugman on monetary transmission channels
Wolfgang Munchau (Portal)

A credit default swap (CDS)
is a bilateral contract under which two counterparties agree to isolate and separately trade the credit risk of at least one third-party reference entity.
Under a credit default swap agreement, a protection buyer pays a periodic fee to a protection seller in exchange for a contingent payment by the seller upon a credit event (such as a default or failure to pay) happening in the reference entity.

Låt oss kalla dem jihadister
Timothy Garton Ash

More by Timothy Garton Ash

The huge backlog of unsold homes suggests house prices have further to fall — by around 20% going by housing futures.
The Economist Jan 2008

More about Houseprices

Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis so Different?
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard, parallels between America's subprime mess and 18 previous banking crises
The Economist Jan 2008

In a dramatic change of tone Ben Bernanke indicated that the Federal Reserve is ready to cut interest rates aggressively to ward off the risk of a US recession
FT January 10 2008

Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis so Different?
(Different from the Debt Crisis of the 80's?)
Martin Wolf, FT January 8 2008

There was a definite Hirohito feel to the explanation Ben Bernanke gave Krugman
When announcing Japan’s surrender in 1945, Emperor Hirohito famously explained his decision as follows: “The war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan’s advantage.”

Ben Bernanke: “Market discipline has in some cases broken down, and the incentives to follow prudent lending procedures have, at times, eroded.”
More about Bernanke
More about Hedge Funds/Subprime

Tell me once again just who this Minsky fellow is and why it’s his moment Paul McCulley, January 2008

More about Hyman Minsky
More by Paul McCulley

Don't count on a 'normal' recession, Jubak

More about recession

This huge monetary expansion perpetrated by the Federal Reserve has contributed to the biggest speculation in every conceivable asset category and has been accompanied by unprecedented hubris, greed and outright fraud.
This will be punished. The punishment is likely to fit the crime.
Ian Gordon, Economic Forecaster and Interpreter of Kondratieff Cycle

More about Banks
More about 1929

Person of the Year: Jean-Claude Trichet, Financial Times

More about Jean-Claude Trichet

Is the US heading into a recession? New Economist, Stephen Roach, James Grant, Martin Feldstein

Switzerland's Federal Banking Commission (EBK) is to investigate how UBS became one of the banking sector's worst victims of the credit crunch, BBC

More about UBS

Now that the subprime shakeout is nearly over, another real estate mess looms, this time in commercial property, Jesse Eisinger

More about Houseprices

In 2007 there was one economic event of such overwhelming significance that it dwarfed all the others - the credit crunch. - Who was to blame?, Roger Bootle

See also: Banks... - Alan Greenspan - Hedgefunds/Subprime

Crisis may make 1929 look a 'walk in the park', Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

More about 1929 - More about Hedgefunds/Subprime

RECESSION 2008 » DEPRESSION 2009, Aubie Baltin

See also:Aubie Baltin
House Prices - Monetarism

Bear Stearns has posted its first quarterly loss in the company's history, BBC

See also: The report, written five months before the collapse of two Bear Stearns hedge funds, contains a frighteningly accurate picture of how things may, and some would argue, have turned out. Stefan-Michael Stalmann

Everywhere leverage is being unwound – especially in the shadow banking system, John Plender

More by John Plender

Monetary rescue helicopters getting bigger, FT Gillian Tett

Helicopters - Gillian Tett

Central bank to supply funds at fixed rate, CNN
ECB lends $500bn to lower rates, BBC
European Central Bank pumping-in almost €170bn extra liquidity at below market interest rates, FT

President George W. Bush warned “it will take a while to get through the housing bubble”
but reassured Americans “we have got a strategy”. FT

Morgan Stanley taps China for $5bn, FT
Wall Street firm, suffering first quarterly loss ever, takes $5.7 billion writedown and sells $5 billion stake to China fund. CNN

The Fed has lost control of the money supply, because the banks it regulates no longer are the primary movers of debt creation.
Non-depository institutions and funds created massive amounts of new money based on leverage.
John Mauldin 2007-12-14

Hold tight, the central banks have no plan
Last week’s co-ordinated liquidity action by five central banks taught us that this is not the case.
Wolfgang Munchau, FT, December 17 2007

In the end, the Fed can always stop a deflationary spiral.
As Bernanke said to Milton Freidman on his 90th birthday, the Fed will not repeat the monetary crunch it allowed to happen 1930-32.
"Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again."
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on 14 Dec 2007

These are historic moments for the world economy.
First and most important, what is happening in credit markets today is a huge blow to the credibility of the Anglo-Saxon model of transactions-orientated financial capitalism.
A mixture of crony capitalism and gross incompetence has been on display in the core financial markets of New York and London.
Martin Wolf, FT 12/12 2007

In past financial crises - the stock market crash of 1987, the aftermath of Russia's default in 1998 - the Fed has been able to wave its magic wand and make market turmoil disappear. But this time the magic isn't working.
Why not? Because the problem with the markets isn't just a lack of liquidity - there's also a fundamental problem of solvency.
Paul Krugman, IHT December 14, 2007

Citigroup makes $49bn SIV rescue
will take control of seven investment funds worth $49bn
BBC, 14 December 2007, with good links, as usual

This week, the Bank of England and four other central banks in America, Canada, Europe, and Switzerland, injected about £10bn each into the money market.
BBC 14/12 2007

US inflation jumped to an annual rate of 4.3 per cent in November
highlighted the risk the economy will face at least a brief period of “stagflation”
FT December 14 2007

Fågelinfluensa av den fruktade virustypen H5N1 har påträffats hos fåglar i Brandenburg utanför Berlin.
Saudiarabiens jordbruksdepartement har beordrat att 13.500 strutsar ska avlivas efter ett nytt utbrott av fågelinfluensa i kungadömet.
TT-AFP/DN 2007-12-16

The central bank helicopters are planning a co-ordinated drop of liquidity on troubled market waters.
One point is clear: central banks must be pretty worried to take such a joint action.
Martin Wolf. FT December 12 2007 18:01

Doomed to Fail
- Central Banks Auctioning of Low Interest Rate Loans to holders of US Mortgaged-Backed Securities

Peter Schiff, Dec 14, 2007

Göran Persson:
Jag hade ingen som helst grund för att säga som jag gjorde.
HSB:s sparkassa omfattades verkligen inte av den statliga insättargarantin.

Min väg, mina val

Göran Persson, jag och krisen inom HSB
Rolf Englund blog 2007-12-15

Kunde Chavez utlysa folkomröstning om den nya konstitutionen så borde väl Fredrik och Mona också kunna göra det
Rolf Englund blog 13/12 2007

The charge of the central banks
The world’s major central banks have united to take unconventional action in the money markets.
The battle may not yet be won, but the cavalry has arrived.
Financial Times editorial, December 12 2007

Morgan Stanley has issued a full recession alert for the US economy
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Daily Telegraph 12/12 2007

Up to 110 bn dollar in loans will be made available to world money markets by central banks
Analysts say the unprecedented move is a sign of the severity of the problems.
BBC 13/12 2007

How to solve the problem of the dollar
The world economy faces an acute policy dilemma that, if mishandled, could bring on the mother of all monetary crises.
Fred Bergsten, FT December 10 2007

U.S. Trade Gap Widened in October to 57.8 bn
Excluding petroleum, the imbalance was the smallest since 2004.
Bloomberg 2007-12-12

Why the dollar’s drop is failing to rebalance the world
Chris Giles, FT December 10 2007

This isn't just a mortgage or housing crisis.
At the center of this still-unfolding disaster is the collateralized debt obligation, or CDO.
Steven Pearlstein, Washington Post, December 10, 2007

Mean times - Why credit spreads revert to the middle
SIVs and Disintermediation Dec 9th 2007

The world's biggest banks start to reveal the extent of their losses from a lending binge that has helped buoy the global economy through an extraordinary Decade of Debt.
A credit crunch on this scale can only end in economic dislocation.
Damian Reece Daily Telegraph 11/12/2007

The trouble with the Paulson plan
In short, he said, it is a “market-based approach”.
Give the man some credit for using that term without laughing
Clive Crook, FT December 9 2007

US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson can be forgiven for pushing through a rescue plan last week that amounts to a flagrant abuse of contract law and capitalist principles.
Would free marketeers rather see the whole edifice of capitalism burned to the ground to make their point?
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Daily Telegraph, 10/12/2007

The US government’s attempt to stem the growing housing crisis involves arbitrary judgments, rewards for reckless behaviour and variations of contracts.
But it is justified by the extreme circumstances.
FT Editorial, December 7 2007

What we are witnessing is essentially the breakdown of our modern day banking system, a complex of levered lending so hard to understand
that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke required a face-to-face refresher course from hedge fund managers in mid-August.
Bill Gross, December 2007

President George W Bush has outlined plans to freeze rates on sub-prime mortgages
for five years to help people hit by the US housing market crisis.

Mr Bush said his plans did not signal a "bail-out" for mortgage lenders, property speculators or those "who made reckless decisions to buy a home they knew they couldn't afford".
BBC 6/12 2007

The promise and pitfalls of the Treasury's plan for mortgage-loan modifications
The Economist print edition,Dec 6th 2007

Goldman Sachs, began reducing its inventory of mortgages and mortgage securities late last year.
Even so, Goldman went on to package and sell more than $6 billion of new securities backed by subprime mortgages.
IHT 6/12 2007

What should they do if the economy is faced with both increasing inflation and severe growth slowdown?
This is the dilemma of stagflation.

Samuel Brittan, FT December 6 2007

Saving Face (SIV Rescue Edition) Events have overtaken the SIV rescue plan brokered by the Treasury Department and sponsored by Citigroup, Bank of America, and JP Morgan.
We said early on that this plan looked to be for the benefit of Citi, and that is turning out to be the case.
Nakedcapitalism 6/12 2007

The US economy is leading the way, having already entered a stagflationary phase.
Such an environment is poisonous for financial assets.

Tim Bond, head of asset allocation for Barclays Capital 6/12 2007

Why Do Financial Firms Take Too Much Risk?
The principal/agent problem
John H. Makin, American Enterprise Institute, November 20, 2007

Deflation – not a monetary phenomenon
Unlike most economists, we at Cornerstone do not view deflation from a monetary standpoint.
This, we believe, is the mistake both Wall Street and the Fed are making.
Instead, we look at it from a businessman’s perspective.
John Riley, 03/12 2007

A full-blown dollar crisis on top of a credit crunch and a weakening economy would be frightening.
The Economist print, editorial 29/11 2007

My personal inflation expectations have gone up from something "close to, but above" 2 per cent to about 3 per cent
The first, and most important reason is that the ECB is not a true price stability advocate, but a central bank whose first priority is financial stability.
Wolfgang Münchau, Eurointelligence 5/12 2007

Companies in Britain and Europe have failed to place a single high-yield bond since the credit crunch kicked off in August, and may now have to wait until next year before the credit market reopens for business.
Will Europe survive the euro?
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Daily Telegraph, 29/11/2007

The public sector subsidises the banks risk-taking. It does so because banks provide a utility.
What the banks give in return, however, is gung-ho speculation.

Martin Wolf, FT November 27 2007

Bill Gross, chief investment officer of Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund, has in recent years become famous for issuing downbeat warnings about the credit world.
This month, however, his tone has turned positively apocalyptic.
“We haven’t faced a downturn like this since the Depression,”
Gillian Tett, FT November 27 2007

CIBC World Markets financial services analyst Meredith Whitney,
whose vociferous comments on Citigroup triggered a $369bn fall in world equity markets and prompted Citigroup chairman and chief executive Charles “Chuck” Prince to resign earlier this month,
said the new investment was “not enough, and certainly too late”.
Daily Telegraph 29/11 2007

Citi shares rise on $7.5bn capital injection
at a coupon of 11 per cent from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority FT November 27 2007

Perhaps we should examine parallels with 1973

Tony Jackson, FT November 26 2007

“The reasons why the massive liquidity injections and policy rate cuts by central banks have miserably failed are clear,”
“We are facing a credit/insolvency problem in addition to a liquidity crunch and central banks’ monetary policy is impotent in dealing with credit problems.”

NOURIEL ROUBINI, November 26th, 2007

På börsen har det rullande p/e-talet för de kommande 12 månaderna kommit ned till 12,1
Det är den lägsta nivån sedan sammanställningarna inleddes i början av 2003.
Snittet har under perioden legat på 15,0.
DI 2007-11-27

Dollar’s last lap as the only anchor currency
the Bretton Woods II theory
Wolfgang Munchau, FT November 25 2007

The Next Dominos:
Junk Bond And Counterparty Risk

one of the more important editions of Outside the Box this year. This is a must read. You absolutely need to understand the nature of the systemic risk we are facing, and Ted does a great job of explaining in very clear terms the nature of the risks that we have created in our modern markets.
Ted Seides at John Mauldin 26/11 2007

Do high oil prices matter? Isn't the world now less dependent on oil?
You'd think so, if you listened to conventional wisdom.
Even in the West, if oil is so unimportant, why are we using much more of it than we did in the early 1970s?
Liam Halligan, Economics Editor, Daily Telegraph, 19/11/2007

Wake up to the dangers of a deepening crisis
The odds now favour a US recession that slows growth significantly on a global basis.
There is the risk that the adverse impacts will be felt for the rest of this decade and beyond.
Lawrence Summers, FT November 25 2007

The news last week that the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are considering dropping the dollar peg is another important development,
the significance of which cannot be overestimated.

If this happens, it may well mark the unravelling of a regime known in the policy jargon as Bretton Woods II.
Wolfgang Münchau, FT November 18 2007

Recession in America looks increasingly likely.
The Economist print Nov 15th 2007

How do You Spell Stagflation?
John Mauldin 16/11 2007

Support for SIV $75bn superfund grows
FT November 18 2007 with good links

On December 29 Prozac celebrates its 20th birthday.
Now about 54m people around the world take Prozac, and many more millions take its sister selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) drugs.
Financial Times

Let us call a spade a spade.
The blame for the vulnerability of Northern Rock lies with its management
Would it not be better to let mismanaged institutions go under, while protecting small depositors effectively?
Answer: yes, it would.
Martin Wolf, Financial Times November 15 2007

Nouriel Roubini takes his somber views one step further and discusses the possibility of a crisis in some detail.
"With the Recession Becoming Inevitable the Consensus Shifts Towards the Hard Landing View. And the Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown,"
Even by Roubini standards this is grim reading.
Naked capitalism, November 17, 2007

Karin Bojs:
IPCC:s nya rapport är årtiondets viktigaste dokument

Om vi ska få utvecklingen att svänga, då måste det ske absolut senast 2015.
DN 17/11 2007

Financial companies' losses due to the US sub-prime crisis could be as much as $400bn
Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius predicts leveraged investors may have to reduce their lending by $2 trillion as a result.
"The macroeconomic consequences could be quite dramatic,"
Mr Hatzius said.

BBC 16/11 2007

Sedan slutet av 1990-talet har oljan blivit sex gånger dyrare
Ändå ser man inga kristecken som stagflation
Inte ens om oljan på allvar skulle börja sina behöver det betyda någon ekonomisk kris.
Johan Schück, DN 16/11 2007

Raised eyebrows
Last week, RBS, Royal Bank of Scotland, the British banking group, raised eyebrows when it was widely reported that one of its highly respected credit analysts had predicted that subprime losses could eventually rise to between $250bn and $500bn – or twice previous estimates.
Gillian Tett, Financial Times, November 15 2007

A perfect storm for gold as mines left empty
The era of 'peak gold' has arrived.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Daily Telegraph 15/11/2007

The Moral Hazard of Subprime Risk
An unholy alliance between the real estate, mortgage lending and securities industries and the Washington political and regulatory elite has brought the US economy, the dollar and millions of Americans to the verge of a serious financial calamity.
The Institutional Risk Analyst, November 12, 2007

The year-over-year rate of inflation October climbed to 3.5 percent
a level not seen since August of last year,
just prior to the sell-off in energy commodities that led to plunging year-over-year changes
Im Iacono 2007-11-15

The US consumer is on the precipice of experiencing the first recessionary phase since 1991
– the last time we had the combination of punishingly high energy prices, weakening employment, real estate deflation and tightening credit conditions.
Kronkursförsvaret var 1992
David Rosenberg, chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch, FT November 14 2007

It is only halfway through November but I think we can already declare the winner of the 2007 Quote of the Year competition. It is Chuck Prince, the former chairman and chief executive of Citigroup.
As Mr Prince departs, however, it should be noted that his statement was not, as history will record it, idiotic.
His offence was not that he misunderstood or misstated how banks have operated over the past few years but that he blurted out the truth rather too openly.
Note that he did not say “if” the music stops but “when”.
John Gapper, FT November 14 2007

Central Bank's monetary policy was not the primary cause of
the persistant decline in inflation and long-term interest rates

Alan Greenspan, The Age of Turbulence, p. 14

The increase in China’s energy demand between 2002 and 2005 was equivalent to Japan’s current annual energy use.” This nugget of information, buried in the International Energy Agency’s latest World Energy Outlook, tells one almost all one needs to know about what is happening to the world’s energy economy.
Martin Wolf, FT November 13 2007

Perils of Plenty:
Can Foreign Reserves Grow Forever?
Paul McCulley and Ramin Toloui November 2007

Some 24,000 birds on four premises are being culled as a precaution
after the virulent H5N1 strain of bird flu was found in turkeys on a Suffolk farm.
BBC 2007-11-14

It has all the hallmarks of stagflation.
The economy is heading for a major slowdown, the housing market is already starting to turn; financial markets still look extremely shaky
Daily Telegraph 2007-11-14

The U.S. Credit Crunch Of 2007
Despite the arrival of a Minsky moment,
a meltdown is not likely to follow.

On both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, central banks have stepped in as "lenders of last resort" to help maintain orderly conditions in financial markets and to prevent credit dislocations from adversely affecting the broader economy.
John Mauldin 2007-11-12

Yen hits 18-month high of Y109.13 against the dollar
Investors unwind carry trades
FT November 12 2007

Shares in E-Trade, the online broker that has seen its expansion into the mortgage market backfire, plunged nearly 59 per cent on Monday amid fears that its dependence on uninsured deposits could force it to sell assets at fire sale prices.
FT 2007-11-12

Two things stand out about the credit crisis cascading through Wall Street:
It is both totally shocking and utterly predictable.
Shocking, because a pack of the highest-paid executives on the planet, lauded as the best minds in business and backed by cadres of math whizzes and computer geeks, managed to lose tens of billions of dollars on exotic instruments built on the shaky foundation of subprime mortgages.
A Fortune special report, November 12 2007

The world economy can now look forward to confronting four ugly and partly interrelated shocks at the same time:
a US economy heading for the rocks, a rise in global inflation, a collapse in the dollar’s exchange rate and a credit market crisis.
Wolfgang Munchau, FT November 11 2007

Richard Syron, Chairman, Freddie Mac:
This is the first time we have had an absolute decline in housing prices in the US since the Great Depression
BBC 2007-11-09

The Economic Consequences of Mr. Bush
The damage done to the American economy does not make front-page headlines every day, but the repercussions will be felt beyond the lifetime of anyone reading this page.
Nobel laureate Joseph E. Stiglitz, Vanity Fair December 2007

President Sarkozy urged the US to maintain a strong dollar policy, warning that “monetary disorder risked turning into economic war”.
FT November 7 2007

The dollar has fallen by 36 per cent on the official trade-weighted index against major currencies since its high point in 2002 and
by a sensational 41 per cent against the euro.

the imbalance problem has begun to fade away.
Samuel Brittan, FT November 8 2007

I think the really interesting question to be asked to which extent central banks have contributed to, or even caused, this crisis.
This is not about Mr Greenspan, or a single monetary policy decision at a particular time, or whether US interest rates were raised too late in the last cycle.
This question relates to the longer-term impact of monetary policy during the age of global disinflation, which started in the early 1990s, and which has just ended.
The ECB, the Fed, and the Credit Crisis, Wolfgang Münchau. 07.11.2007

- What the heck's happening to our financial system?
That will be a question many people will be asking after Washington Mutual shares plunged 17 percent in a single day.
This after all is an industry-leading bank with over $320 billion in assets.
CNN Fortune 2007-11-08

World stock markets are braced for further turmoil, amid reports that a US Treasury plan to stabilise troubled credit markets may have stalled.
The $75bn scheme, designed to buy debt of questionable value to avoid panic selling, has been thrown into doubt by problems at Citigroup
BBC 2007-11-07

It was the 1988 Basel Accord that first created the opportunity for regulatory arbitrage
whereby banks could shunt loans off the balance sheet.
John Plender, FT November 6 2007

The Bank Credit Analyst's Latest Thinking
The housing slump is far from over, and I agree.
While their most likely scenario is that we avoid a recession, it is possible that housing woes could lead to a further slump in consumer confidence
John Mauldin 2007-11-06

Den byggfirma som statssekreterare Nicola Clase och hennes man har anlitat
för omfattande renoveringar av ett av deras sommarhus,
har inte redovisat några pengar till Skatteverket.
Ekot 2007-11-07

"The critical issue on the whole subprime, and by extension, the international financial system
rests very narrowly on getting rid of probably 200,000-300,000 excess units in inventory," /-houses/

Alan Greenspan, CNN 2007-11-06

Oil hits $98 on weakening dollar
BBC 2007-11-07 with good links

What we saw this summer is something we've seen before and will undoubtedly see again. The sell-off was predictable and avoidable.
Some people were apparently shocked to learn that gambling was occurring at Rick's Cabaret.
Speech by Michael E. Lewitt, made at the The Bank Credit Analyst Conference
Mauldin's Outside The Box 2007-11-05

1942 the Nazi occupation of France. Refugees must take a long and torturers rout through Casablanca on their way to America; there "Everybody comes to Rick's." Rick's is a nightclub and a way station for a chance to get to America.
Rick is played by Humphrey Bogart.
A Police Captain (Claude Rains) is shocked to find there is gambling going on at Rick's.
This film has become quite a classic.

Central banks should prick asset bubbles
Paul De Grauwe, FT November 1 2007

Will ha dance anymore?
Charles Prince, the chairman and chief executive of one of the world's biggest banks, Citigroup, has resigned.
He will be replaced as chairman by former US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin
BBC 5/11 2007

The US subprime lending fiasco and its repercussions on Northern Rock have brought back questions about the banking system
- questions such as “What is a bank?” and “What is money?”

Samuel Brittan, FT October 25 2007

A mere 5.4% decline in the value of Citigroup's assets would make Citigroup insolvent.
Michael Shedlock, November 01, 2007

Tomas Fischer hos Ortmark om Kronkursförsvaret:
Det är ju häpnadsväckande att de som hade ansvaret för detta aldrig har ställts till ansvar.
Jag frågade Göran Persson, som jag en enda gång ätit en privat lunch med, hur kunde ni sossar ge riksbanksfullmäktige ansvarsfrihet som har brännt iväg 200 miljarder kronor?
- Ja, sade Göran, det där ett trauma som det kommer att ta decennier att komma till rätta med.

TV8, 1999-05-06

"Min väg, mina val"
Vi får läsa om varje detalj i 1990-talets budgetsanering
- som verkligen var ett hjältedåd -
men vi får ingen djupare förståelse av varför den blev nödvändig.

Niklas Ekal, DNs ledarsida signerat 2007-10-28

The Wall Street Journal says it is London.
The Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism cries foul:
the real SIV-City is Citi.

Brad Setser Oct 18, 2007

Big banks and the feds are working to throw an $80 billion lifeline to companies holding bad loans.
But no one seems interested in rescuing families who need just a little help.
Jubak 2007-10-23

Even 'safe' funds play with fire
Consumers view money market funds as conservative, but...

Fortune 2007-10-19

At work is yet another post-bubble adjustment in the world's largest economy - this time, the bursting of America's massive property bubble.
The subprime fiasco is the tip of a much larger iceberg - an asset-dependent American consumer who has gone on the biggest spending binge in the modern history of the global economy.

Stephen S. Roach 2007-10-22
Outstanding article

A super-duper bad-loan bailout scam
Call it Super SIV Mae. Wall Street's pals in the Treasury Department want to ride to the rescue
with a new entity of entitlement, the 'structured investment vehicle.'
Bill Fleckenstein 2007-10-22

A Troubled 'Ownership Society'
As lenders cease making small, second loans, the homeownership rate is starting to decline,
and the outlook for the housing market could worsen
Plus: Oil & Housing, a Volatile Combo
Business  Week 2007-10-22

The anatomy of a crash:
What the market upheavals of 1987 say about today
John Authers, FT October 19 2007

The dollar has finally begun its long overdue correction.
Its recent decline is just a prelude to the much more substantial fall needed to shrink the US current account deficit
Martin Feldstein, FT October 15 2007

IMF says dollar ‘overvalued’
FT October 18 2007

The real threat to the cohesion of the monetary union is not Italy, or even a post-property-crash Spain.
The real issue is the political gulf between France and Germany.

Susanne Mundschenk and Wolfgang Münchau, Eurointelligence 18/10 2007

The wolf packs are circling. Hedge funds target currency pegs
Fifteen years after George Soros smashed the sterling and lira pegs of Europe's Exchange Rate Mechanism, central banks have invited hedge funds to pounce again. This time on a global scale.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Daily Telegraph 15/10/2007

Tim Iacono: Good afternoon.
Alan Greenspan: Good afternoon. My assistant tells me you've been writing about me.
Iacono: A little. Let's get right to the point. Are you responsible for the housing bubble?
Greenspan: No.
Iacono: Would you care to elaborate on that?

Tim Iacono 4/10 2007

Guldaffär fiasko för Riksbanken
"Om de fortsätter att sälja kommer de att förlora ännu mer", säger finansmannen Thomas Fischer.
Gunnar Örn, Dagens Industri 2007-10-12

A big fall in the dollar will increase inflation rather lower the trade deficit
In today's Financial Times, Garten focuses on the possibility of a dollar panic
Yale Professor Jeffrey Garten
Naked Capitalism 11/10 2007

The advocates of inflation targeting have never faced any really difficult choices - until now.
Wolfgang Münchau 03.10.2007

Falska bevis pekade ut Sovjet
1982 var världens blickar riktade mot det mörka vattnet på Hårsfjärden, när svenska försvaret försökte tvinga upp en främmmande ubåt
SvT/Uppdrag granskning oktober 2007

The dominoes are toppling.
What began as a credit crunch has turned into a dollar crunch.
We are witnessing a run on the world's paramount reserve currency,
an event that occurs twice a century or so, and never with a benign outcome.

Ambrose Evans- Pritchard, Daily Telegraph 1/10 2007

The shadow banking system of hedge funds and CDOs, CLOs, PIPES, etc.
I'm sure that Bernanke, Paulson, and their cohorts understand this, but...
Bill Gross 1/10 2007

The United States Heads for Recession
Global Rebalancing
John H. Makin, American Enterprise Institute, September 26, 2007

The possibility of a disorderly correction /of the dollar/ is rising
— with potentially grave consequences for the American and global economy.
STEPHEN S. ROACH, New York Times, September 25, 2007

Gold prices advanced $10.10 to $750
- the highest since gold spiked above $850 in January 1980
The dollar new lows for seven straight trading days - more than $1.42
CNN 28/9 2007

If holders of the dollar conclude it is no longer a secure store of value
they will dump both the currency and assets dependent on its future value.
If that were to happen, the Fed would confront a dreadful dilemma
– whether or not to cut rates as the dollar plunged and long-term interest rates soared.

Martin Wolf, Financial Times 26/9 2007

Do Not Forget About Changes in Velocity
As we never tire of pointing out, there are three things that a central bank can control: the growth rate of its money supply, its interest rate, or the value of its currency. Unfortunately, as the Chinese central bankers are now discovering, it cannot control all three at the same time.
Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, and company
John Mauldin, 24/9 2007

När jag kom hem från USA 1969 gick jag med i Clarté, som var ett maoistiskt studentförbund.
Jag ångrar att jag var med så länge
Klas Eklund DN 23/9 2007

Dollarn var i dag måndag nere under 6:50 kronor,
något som inte hänt sedan november 1992.

Rolf Englund blog 24/9 2007

Niklas Ekdal, bunkergängets apologet
Rolf Englund blog 24/9 2007

We are reminded of the 1929 crash.
Countless studies have blamed the monetary authorities for having stood by as the world economy slid into the Great Depression.
Charles Wyplosz, Eurointelligence 23.09.2007

Why did three Republican presidents name a Federal Reserve chairman
fundamentally opposed to the GOP's economic doctrine?

Robert D. Novak, Washington Post, September 24, 2007

Beware moral hazard fundamentalists
The world has at least as much to fear from a moral hazard fundamentalism
that precludes actions that would enhance confidence and stability
as it does from moral hazard itself.
Lawrence Summers, Financial Times September 24 2007

The Fed, like the rest of the US, overreacted to September 11.
The Fed was, of course, right to cut nominal interest rates during the recession, but the Fed was not right to opt for negative real interest rates,
and to leave short-term nominal rates at 1% for a year.
Wolfgang Münchau, Eurointelligence 13.09.2007

The term "sea change" has come to mean a profound transformation ever since Will Shakespeare used it in The Tempest.
I think this week we witnessed a true sea change in central bank policy, on both sides of the Atlantic.
John Mauldin's Weekly E-Letter, 21/9 2007

Tänk tanken att 1990-talskrisen hade fortsatt i tangentens riktning, med skyhöga räntor, konkurser, massarbetslöshet.
Återtågets stora hjälte var finansminister Kjell-Olof Feldt

I det långa perspektivet är misstagen och hjältedåden ganska jämnt fördelade mellan blocken.
Krisen 1992 grundlades under 1970-talet, då socialdemokraterna och de borgerliga regerade halva tiden var.
Niklas Ekdal, signerat, DN 23/9 2007

Mr. Greenspan has just published a book in which he castigates the Bush administration for its fiscal irresponsibility.
Well, I’m sorry, but that criticism comes six years late and a trillion dollars short.
Paul Krugman, New York Times 17/9 2007

Now He Tells Us
Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal, September 22, 2007

Master of the Universe (Rtd)
Alan Greenspan’s legacy? More data are needed. It is, as yet, too early to tell.
Review by Alan Beattie, Financial Times, September 22 2007

Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England,
is playing a game of chicken with the world’s most irresponsible industry.
Sadly, he is losing.

Martin Wolf, Financial Times 21/9 2007

Should central banks take account of asset prices?
This was until recently one of the most hotly debated subjects in monetary economics.
As of this week, the issue has been effectively settled.
Everybody now believes, or rather acts as if, they should.

Eurointelligence, 19/9 2007
Highly recommended

Dollarn rasar till bottennivåer. Valutan har inte legat så lågt på elva år.
Dollarn har inte varit så svag mot det totala indexet på 15 år, och aldrig så svag mot euron.
DI 21/9 2007

Do We Still Need Commercial Banks?
The decision to guarantee deposits raises large questions.
Deposit liabilities are nationalised, while the financial system’s assets, albeit regulated, remain in private hands.

Martin Wolf, Financial Times September 19 2007

Hanteringen av fastighetsskatten och förmögenhetsskatten är under all kritik.
DN huvudledare

Guldpriset USD 733
20/9 2007

Central banks keep throwing in sticks of dynamite
until the ocean finally disgorges a huge dead whale

the Rock would have to turn to the BoE for a loan of at least £30-£40 billion
Anatole Kaletsky, September 17, 2007

Why, after weeks of refusing to intervene in the money markets,
after declaring again and again that such action would cause moral hazard, and
after the run at Northern Rock appeared to be stabilised, has the Bank of England done a U-turn?
"Of course central banks must avert moral hazard, but in a crisis they need to be helpful"
Financial Times editorial 20/9 2007

Deutsche Bank
"will have to reassess investments of EUR29 billion that now look risky in light of the ongoing financial crisis.
20/9 2007

BoE blames laws for Northern Rock crisis
Daily Telegraph 20/09/2007

Kronan är nu starkare mot dollarn än på över tio år.
6,55 klockan 17:17, 20 september 2007

A less risky way to protect savers
Charles Goodhart, Financial Times September 20 2007

Alan Greenspan memoirs: The Age of Turbulence
His book might equally have been entitled The Age of Disinflation.

For the big theme of this work is how the triumph of laisser faire capitalism around the world over the past quarter-century delivered a golden period of low inflation, low interest rates and global prosperity.
Krishna Guha, Financial Times, September 17 2007

"Värsta krisen på 20 år"
Det är nervöst i London. Skulder på närmare 800 miljarder kronor ska refinansieras i veckan.
Ledande brittiska banker varnar nu för den värsta krisen på 20 år på penningmarknaden. Den enorma refinansieringen är till och med större än den som skapade kreditkrisen i mitten av augusti,
skriver Times Online.
Dagens Industri 10/9 2007

If a week is a long time in politics, it is an eternity during a financial crisis.
The credit market crisis is entering its second month and growing worse.
Friday’s US employment report was a reminder, if any was needed, that the risk of an American recession is non-trivial and rising.
Wolfgang Munchau, Financial Times September 10, 2007

Gold rose above $700 in London for the first time since May 2006
on signs turmoil in credit markets is increasing demand for the safety of the metal.
Sept. 7, 2007 Bloomberg

Some 5.12% of the country's mortgages are now delinquent,
meaning the borrower is at least 30 days behind on payments. That's the highest in five years.
Things are the worst in the subprime market:
A whopping 14.82% of those loans are being paid late
Market Oracle 7/9 2007

Greenspan compared the current market turmoil to that of 1987 and in 1998, when the giant hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management nearly collapsed,
the Wall Street Journal reported on its Web site.

The day of the speech, Dow Jones closed at 6,437.10 points
But how do we know when irrational exuberance
has unduly escalated asset values

Click here

Central banks face a liquidity trap
Central banks have always drawn a line between illiquidity and insolvency.
Raghuram Rajan, Financial Times, September 7 2007

The problem is not a liquidity problem but a credibility problem.
There is plenty of cash, and central banks around the world are adding to it daily.
The problem is that no one wants to buy debt that they do not completely understand.
John Mauldin's Weekly E-Letter, 7/9 2007

A perfect example of one of these fallacies recently exposed is the widespread report in August that the
Fed had "injected" billions of dollars worth of "money" into the "system" by "buying" "sub-prime mortgages."
In fact, all it did was offer to stave off the immediate illegality of many banks' operations
by lending money against the collateral of guaranteed mortgages,
but only temporarily under contracts that oblige the banks to buy them back within 1 to 30 days.
The typical duration is 3 days.

Prechter, August 30 2007

Många banker har sålt delar av sin kreditrisk till andra institutioner.
De senaste veckorna har det visat sig att kreditriskerna inte i så hög utsträckning som förväntat hamnat hos placerare som verkligen har kapital för att bära dem.
Vice riksbankschef Lars Nyberg, 2007-09-05

Questions and answers on the debt crisis
Martin Wolf, September 5 2007

Danger: Steep drop ahead
Even if the credit crunch passes without a major catastrophe,
the prices of stocks, bonds and real estate have a long way to fall.
By Jeremy Grantham, CNN/Fortune September 5 2007, 9:27 AM EDT

Dagens Nyheter, centerpartiet och grundlagsfrågan
Rolf Englund blog 29/8 2007

“What is happening right now suggests that the moves by the Fed and ECB just haven’t worked as we hoped,”
“The interbank lending business has broken down almost completely
Gillian Tett, Financial Times September 5 2007

Over the past 20 years major financial disruptions have taken place roughly every three years
Financial crises differ in detail but, just as there are plot cycles common to literary tragedies, they follow a common arc.
Lawrence Summers, Financial Times August 27 2007

Central banks should not rescue fools
Martin Wolf, Financial Times, August 29 2007

If the US Treasury doesn’t think the dollar is overvalued, can it also think that RMB is undervalued?
Brad Setser, Aug 23, 2007

The central banks have been forced to pump in billions of dollars to oil the wheels of lending.
But what happened in previous financial crises, and what are the lessons for today?
BBC 26/8 2007

Harry /Schein/ var hyperintelligent, kvick och bildad och jag var smickrad över att han ville öda sin tid på mig.
Några år umgicks jag på tu man hand med Harry. Han brukade besöka mig medförande en flaska Cutty Sark
som han nästan drack ur samtidigt som han slog mig i schack.
Tomas Fischer, Fokus augusti 2007

Recession? What Recession?
Only two recessions (1990-91 and 8 months in 2001) in the United States over the past 25 years;
over the previous 35 years there were eight.
Bob Pisani 24 Aug 2007

Nobody quite knows exactly where the subprime losses truly lie
Nobody knows the real value of these instruments either

Gillian Tett, Financial Times August 23 2007

Will the money market crisis of the past two weeks come to be known as the Countrywide Crunch?
Originating 17 per cent of all mortgages in the US, mostly not in the troubled subprime sector, and relying on money markets for its funding
John Authers, Investment Editor, Financial Times August 23 2007

Panic, Re-liquification, Market Manipulation and Moral Hazards
John Riley - Chief Strategist Cornerstone 21/8 2007

During times of market turmoil it helps to simplify and get basic – explain things to a public and even yourself in terms of what can be easily understood.
Goodness knows it’s not a piece of cake for anyone over 40 these days to understand the maze of financial structures that now appear to be unwinding.
Bill Gross, September 2007
Even more excellent than usual

Bill Gross, who runs the world's largest bond fund,
has called on President George W. Bush rather than the Federal Reserve
to bail out American homeowners struggling with sub-prime mortgages.
Daily Telegraph 23/8 2007

The “Minsky moment” in financial markets – the point where credit supply starts to dry up, systemic risk emerges and the central bank is obliged to intervene – has duly arrived.
George Magnus, Financial Times August 22 2007

Two years after the US withdrawal, the North Vietnamese launched a full-scale invasion of the South
BBBC 22/8 2007
Med länk till Birgitta Dahl

Länge trodde de flesta - däribland jag själv - att effekterna skulle begränsas till subprime-marknaden.
Men vi hade fel. Smittspridningen har blivit värre.

Klas Eklund, DN Debatt 23/8 2007

The Fed can indeed be accused of being a serial bubble-blower.
But this is not because it has been managed by incompetents.
It is because it has been managed by competent people responding to exceptional circumstances.

Martin Wolf, August 22 2007

People don't seem to grasp that we've had a historically long (since 1982), broad and steep economic and financial boom.
It's gone on so long that everyone pretty much feels that prosperity and profit are just the way the world works.
Doug Casey, July 2007

Bra rutet, Rothstein
"Uppsala universitet måste läggas ned"
Rolf Englund blog

Axel Weber, president of Germany’s Bundesbank, may rue his choice of words eight days ago.
The bail-out of IKB, a previously little-known listed bank that had been caught in the fallout from the US subprime mortgage crisis earlier in August, was an “isolated, institution-specific incident”, he said.
By late last Friday night, it had happened again.
Financial Times 22/8 2007

Bank of England has said it lent money directly to a financial instiution from its emergency lending facility,
as the flight to quality assets by investors gathered pace again today.

Daily Telegraph Tuesday 21/8 2007

What happens when fiscal irresponsibility gets rewarded with bailouts?
You get more fiscal irresponsibility. Let's stop rescuing greedy financiers and investors.
Bill Fleckenstein 20/8 2007

Massivt remiss-nej till nya boskatterna
Även Skatteverket säger nej till höjd reavinstskatt för att finansiera slopad fastighetsskatt. Ett skattepolitiskt bottennapp, är ett omdöme.
SvD 21/8 2007

Ja tack till avskaffad fastighetsskatt
Bort med fastighetsskatten? Fel prioritering, säger en del debattörer med lite mer teknokratisk profil. Andra skattesänkningar ger bättre tillväxteffekter.
Kanske det. Men tillväxt är inte det enda att ta hänsyn till politiken.
PJ Anders Linder SvD 5 juli 2006

Prudent Bear’s Doug Noland has for years been pointing out that one of the drivers of the credit bubble has been the ever-broadening definition of money.
As the global economy expanded without a hic-up, more and more instruments came to be used as a store of value or medium of exchange or even a standard against which to value other things—in other words, as money. Thus mortgage-backed bonds and even more exotic things came to be seen as nearly risk-free and infinitely liquid.
John Rubino, 19/8 2007

Fastighetsskatten och krisen på bolånemarknaden i USA
Rolf Englund blog 20/8 2007

Bland oraklen på World Economic Forum i Davos i januari var det en fråga som dominerade:
Skulle bostadsbubblan i USA ta kål på högkonjunkturen?
En enda deltagare i världens mest kvalificerade panel, professor Nouriel Roubini, talade om en krasch.
De övriga förutspådde ett nästan lika soligt 2007 som 2006.
Niklas Ekdal, DN signerat 18/8 2007

If the Financial Times' Gillian Tett were hit by a bus, I'd be in a lot of trouble.
With all due respect to her colleagues, she is the best source of financial news.
naked capitalism blog, August 13, 2007

Anybody who has borrowed to buy securities – a category that includes a lot of banks – has a problem.
Lenders want their money back, but selling assets is difficult, so there is a squeeze on cash.
That, in a nutshell, is what has been happening in the past couple of weeks and what may continue.
Financial Times editorial 18/8 2007

A fabulous take down of the report from Goldman Sachs entitled “The Quant Liquidity Crunch."
The Big Picture

The subprime-mortgage-market meltdown is a classic example of the way small fry get devoured,
but the whales of Wall Street get rescued.

Here's the deal:
Allan Sloan, Fortune senior editor-at-large, August 17 2007

Precis som vid andra tillfällen när börsen rasat träder proffsen fram, analytikerna, aktiestrategerna och mäklarna och råden är sig lika:
Ha is i magen och sitta still i båten!
Fredrik Braconier, 18/8 2007

Fedstyrelsen beslutat att temporärt sänka diskontoräntan med 50 punkter till 5,75 procent,
för att minska skillnaden mellan diskontoräntan och
Feds mål för overnighträntan, Fed funds, som lämnas oförändrad på 5,25 procent.
DI/Direkt 17/8 2007

Bernanke’s Sophie's Choice:
"The housing market or the stock market Mr. Bernanke.
You may only be able to try and save one..."

Central bank intervention last Friday to inject liquidity into the global financial system did not mark the beginning of the end of financial market turmoil.
It was merely the end of the beginning.

Avinash Persaud, Financial Times 16/8 2007

The doubts burst into the open on August 9th when central banks were forced to inject liquidity into the overnight money markets because banks were charging punitive rates to lend to each other.
The Economist print 16/8 2007

Recession in 2007?
Click here

A Temporary Power Outage
Wall Street remains caught in a tizzy over a power outage in the credit markets. But Main Street is in fine economic shape, according to the latest reports out of Washington.
Lawrence Kudlow 15/8 2007

Varför betalade ECB 1.800 miljarder kronor för att rädda euron?
Rolf Englund blog 15/8 2007

Fear makes a welcome return
This is not new. It is as old as financial capitalism itself.
The late Hyman Minsky, who taught at the University of California, Berkeley, laid down the canonical model.
Martin Wolf, Financial Times 15/8 2007

The euro slipped to a six-week low against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday and
high-yielding currencies stayed weak as investors continued to unwind risky positions
on concerns that fallout from the U.S. subprime problems is spreading to other countries.
CNBC/Reuters August 14, 2007

Long Term Capital Management
"The world does not understand how close we came to a total meltdown of the markets."
vice-chairman of one of the largest insurance firms in the world
cit. by John Mauldin 10/8 2007

The banks are currently holding (roughly) $300 billion in collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and another $225 billion in collateralized loan obligations (CLOs)
Mike Whitney, Atlantic Free Press, 13 August 2007

Is the worst over?
10-point guide to understanding two harrowing weeks - and what's likely to happen next.
Fortune's Peter Gumbel, CNN August 14 2007

It is very obvious to us that the most extreme credit boom in history is already in the process of unwinding, as investors are reassessing risk.
The only question is whether it will unwind orderly or not. We tend towards the latter interpretation
Eurointelligence, 1/8 2007

Five reasons why this is a crash, not a correction
Wolfgang Münchau blog 05.03.2007

Financial plumber must stem the panic
If something goes wrong, however, the result is panic,
and extreme anger directed at the regulators and central banks that guard the infrastructure.
That has happened this month.
John Authers, Financial Times August 11 2007

The European Central Bank on Monday injected another 47.67 billion euros ($65 billion) into the banking system
13 Aug 2007

Speculation is mounting that the European Central Bank will seek to arrange a currency swap
with the US Federal Reserve that would allow it to lend dollars to
European banks struggling to meet short-term dollar funding needs.
Financial Times, August 13, 2007

The payment system is a collective good.
The central bank, as lender of last resort, is the ultimate guarantor of this collective good.

This implies that in times of crisis it should provide unlimited amounts of liquidity to ensure the smooth functioning of the payment system.
There is a problem, though. Central banks are responsible not only for the present but also for the future stability of the payment system.
Excellent article by Paul de Grauwe, Financial Times, August 13 2007

Cramer Pleads for a Fed Rescue Click

From June 2006
ECB warns of hedge funds risk to stability
in the same category as a possible bird flu pandemic
Financial Times 2/6 2006

Is the turmoil in the U.S. stock market starting to resemble the biggest financial crisis of the past century?
Play video at CNN August 10 2007

Fed joined ECB adding temporary cash to the banking system for a second day, aiming to stem a collapse in credit markets.
Fed is providing reserves to "facilitate the orderly functioning" of markets,
in a statement unprecedented since the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001
Aug. 10 (Bloomberg)

The European Central Bank scrambled to head off a potential financial crisis on Thursday by pumping an emergency €94.8bn ($131bn) into the region’s banking system
after liquidity in the interbank market started to dry up, threatening banks’ access to short-term funds.
Financial Times 8/10 2007

Med nödkrediter på nästan 900 miljarder kronor, mer än man pumpade ut efter terrorattackerna den 11 september 2001, lyckades Europeiska centralbanken avvärja en allmän panik på Europas finansmarknader.
Gunnar Örn, Dagens Industri 8/10 - den 10 augusti - 2007

Inject! Inject!
The European Central Bank injected $130.5 billion into euro-zone money markets on Thursday
The Fed added a total of $24 billion of funds to the banking system Thursday
Inject! Inject!

Rolf Englund börjar blogga på svenska
Skall 8/10 bli lika känt som 9/11 ?
Rolf Englund blog 10/8 2007

Recent stock market turbulence should abate because
the US economy remains fundamentally strong

President George W Bush, BBC 9/8 2007

The value of the dollar against the currencies of main trading partners.
Justin Fox, Time’s business and economics columnist, 25/7 2007

Aubie Balin 6/8 2007

"When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will get complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing."
Citigroup chief executive Chuck Prince in July 9 interview in Tokyo with the Financial Times
cit. by John Makin, AEI, 26/7 2007, who writes that:
"the range of possible outcomes, both for the U.S. and global economies and for global financial markets, is wider than it has been for some time"

How much the world has changed, and not for the better,
due to the irresponsible behavior on the part of the Bank of Japan and Alan Greenspan's Federal Reserve
over the past 20 years or so.
Bill Fleckenstein 6/8 2007

Nearly 25 million people have been displaced by flooding and 1,400 killed in South Asia in the worst monsoon rains to lash the region in decades.
The Economic Times 6/8 2007

In November the CPI index - headline inflation rate will be well over 4% year over year.
John Mauldin's Weekly E-Letter, 3/8 2007

$43bn of deals pulled in a fortnight
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:
Has Bear Stearns finally popped the great world bubble?
Daily Telegraph 3/8 2007

The recent sell-off in financial markets is good news.
It may, at last, have brought people to their senses.
The Economist 2/8 2007

Where was the PPT today?
Things are really starting to get interesting now . . .
The Big Picture Friday, August 03, 2007

- Bond market turmoil sending investors fleeing from risk may be a worse predicament than the 1980s stock market fall and Internet bubble burst, Bear Stearns Chief Financial Officer Sam Molinaro said Friday.
"So, yes, we would make that comparison" to market events that also
include the debt crisis of the late 1990s, he said.

Nice list of imploded lenders
Click here

Princeton Professor Harold James has written a book titled
The Roman Predicament: How the Rules of International Order Create the Politics of Empire.

Some 46 financing deals representing $60 billion have been pulled from the market since June 22,
according to an analysis by Baring Asset Management.
By comparison, no deals were pulled in all of last year, according to the investment management firm.
CNN 3/8 2007

Bear Stearns’ sobering lessons
It raises questions about the exposure of market participants to risk, and the wisdom of aspects of the Basel II accords on bank capitalisation.
Sean Egan, Financial Times August 2 2007

So the question is:
Are we in the midst of a credit crunch?
Jim Jubak, CNBC 3/8 2007

Germany's looming S&L crisis
German savings banks are the backbone of Germany's unique economic system. If they go pop, so will Ludwig Erhard's social market economy.
Wolfgang Münchau, Eurointelligence 14.06.2007

The rapid unravelling of the US subprime mortgage market reminds us of... the costly savings and loan crisis of the early 1980s
Desmond Lachman, Financial Times August 3 2007

Bostadsmarknaden på andra sidan Atlanten
Det talas om det värsta nedgången sedan 30-talets depression

I grunden ser det dock ganska ljust ut för både Sveriges och världens ekonomi
Andreas Cervenka, DN Börs 28/7 2007

German bail-out
Jochen Sanio, head of Germany’s financial regulator, is said to have warned of the worst banking crisis since 1931
Financial Times 2/8 2007

Well-anchored inflationary expectations are not – repeat not – the end all and be all of life.
Accordingly, they should not be the end all and be all of monetary policy, despite the huge volume of written and oral rhetoric offered by a chorus of policy makers to that effect.
Paul McCulley, Pimco July 2007

“Where are the buyers getting the money to buy all of this stock and bond madness and act like a bunch of morons?”
“‘Margin Debt’ Hits Record $353 Billion on NYSE”
Mogambo Guru on Jul 24th, 2007

Difficulties for the US housing market have been evident for at least a year and data this week showed
the overhang of unsold existing homes at its highest level since 1992,
at the end of the nation’s last housing recession.
John Authers, Financial Times 27/7 2007

300-point drop? It's just the start
Bill Fleckenstein thinks we're headed for an even bigger fall
Read more here

In “The Coming Collapse of the Dollar,” James Turk and I said this about the effect of a falling dollar on other countries:
The only reason Japan or Europe can generate even their current meager rates of growth is the willingness of U.S. consumers to buy their Hondas and BMWs.
John Rubino 7/20/2007

The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression, by Amity Shlaes.
This new book is the finest history of the Great Depression ever written.
Steven F. Hayward, National Review, July 30, 2007

China is growing incredibly fast.
If net exports contributed 3% to China's 12% growth in q2, China would have grown by a very respectable 9% even if its trade surplus didn't grow.
That is the missed opportunity.
This is a time when the global economy should be adjusting.

Brad Setser 19/7 2007

If money can be created from thin air, the opposite is also true:
it can be destroyed as well.
To understand this, we have to understand how the money was created in the first place.
Michael Nystrom, MBA July 20, 2007

The Fed and the banks, providing unlimited amounts of money to create the real estate bubble, has created US$5 trillion in “bubble wealth”.
Mogambo Guru 17/7 2007

Can the Fed Control Prices?
Bernanke admitted that he has no control over asset prices or even key interest rates. But does he have control over any prices?
Michael Shedlock 20/7 2007

If Warren Buffett can't figure out derivatives, can anybody?
Markets are tied together in ways that regulators and even Wall Street professionals struggle to comprehend. Bonds are bound to stocks, which are tied to currencies around the world.
Jesse Eisinger, may 2007

Is M3 money warning of an inflationary blow-off in the US?
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Daily Telegraph 16 July 2007

– Den situation som vi har nu med en väldigt hög kredittillväxt och stor utlåning i kombination med stigande fastighetspriser har kanske varit rimlig fram till i dag,
säger Robert Bergqvist, chefsekonom på SE-banken.
Ekot 16/7 2007

If it is not too much of an intellectual stretch to say that China is part of the monetary union that is called the United States
— the 51st state, if you will —

then it is not too much of a stretch to say that what can go wrong is that China decides—or is forced—to secede.
Paul McCulley, June 2007

World will face oil crunch ‘in five years’
FT 10/7 2007

The International Energy Agency released their "Medium-Term Oil Market Report" a short time ago
The entire report(.pdf) is free at the Wall Street Journal (link at Iaccono)
Tim Iacono 11/7 2007

Wrong lessons from Asia’s crisis
Chris Giles, FT July 2 2007

The country that most troubles outsiders is Latvia.
It has a whopping current-account deficit: some 21% of GDP in 2006, soaring consumption and debt, financed mainly by foreign-owned banks.
This points to a need for tough restraining measures. But the currency, the lats, is pegged to the euro, so the central bank's ability to raise interest rates is constrained.
RE: Like in Sweden before 1992 and allt that
The Economist print July 5th 2007

Holbrooke skriver om Carl Bildt i en fotnot:
- Carl Bildt suggested that we redesignate the rooms with more peaceful names for the duration of the conference, a proposal that was impractical.

Inflation in UK
Two pieces of data are now screaming danger.
Martin Wolf June 15 2007

F.d vice riksbankschefen Kristina Persson
"Hon hade inte där att göra - hon ville bara sänka räntan jämt"
före detta vice riksbankschefen Villy Bergström

DI/Direkt 2007-06-11

If, as I believe, the US economy has already reached the stagflation phase
rising interest rates come at a very inopportune time for the economy and also for asset markets.
Dr. Marc Faber June 09 - 2007

En osannolik politiker
Carl-Johan Åberg (s) - en bildad gentleman av god familj
Rolf Englund om boken "Berättelser från 1900-talet"

Bildts internationella storhet är betydligt överdriven.
Faktum är att han inte fick något riktigt jobb.
PM Nilsson, Expressen 10/6 2007

Paris Hilton has been taken screaming from a Los Angeles court
after being told to return to jail to serve out her sentence.

Vad fick 2,7 miljoner svenskar att skriva på ett upprop mot USA:s krigföring i Vietnam?
Det är lätt att förstå varför FNL-rörelsen tilltalade så många av det sena 60- och det tidiga 70-talets 15-25-åringar. Den var som klippt och skuren för en ung idealist. I grunden fanns en tydlig konflikt, mellan USA:s moraliska haveri och de indokinesiska folkens rätt till självständighet.
Peter Fröberg Idling, Författare till "Pol Pots leende", DN Kultur söndagen den 3 juni 2007

USA-stormen på väg att bedarra.
Världen har hållit andan inför det oundvikliga raset i den amerikanska ekonomin.
Men nu skingras orosmolnen över världens finanscentrum.
Veckans Affärer 7 juni

“The trend is your friend.”
That is an old saw on the market, and it has made many rich.
When the trend breaks, you have nothing to hold on to.
That is when panic ensues

Financial Times 8 juni

Saudi Arabia is running the U.S. economy.
Because the United States still doesn't have a national energy policy, we've thrown decisions about how fast our economy grows and whether our standard of living rises or falls into the hands of Saudi Arabia's oil ministry.
Jim Jubak 5/6 2007

European ministers to press ahead with plans to develop a satellite navigation system to provide “independence” from the US
Transport ministers agreed unanimously to end talks with a private consortium and to spend $3.2bn to build it themselves instead.
Kommentar av Rolf Englund:
Ett tydligt bevis för att ambitionerna bakom EU är att bygga inte bara en superstat, utan en supermakt, som ett led i sin europeiska ideologi byggd på bland annat USA-hat av gammalt europeiskt aristokratiskt och vänsterintellektuellt märke.
Läs mer här

'Prophets of doom' will be right in the end
... that might be called a market's economy
Rolf Englund, Financial Times, June 5 2007

ECB President Trichet's faith in the importance of money supply is being questioned
Bloomberg 5/6 2007

I efterhand vet vi:
Vi såg inte att det under den finansiella bubbla som byggdes upp och sprack - kraschen för teknikaktierna - också fanns en real bubbla.
Klas Eklund på SvD ledarsida 2001-08-24

Who's the most powerful economist now?
We don't know his name. We don't even know if he IS an economist. But whoever runs Chinese financial policy - perhaps the head of the People's Bank of China - is the man to watch.
The Daily Reckoning, June 4, 2007

How did we get here?
To make a long story short: The process was started by money printing in America to bail out the last bubble.
Bill Fleckenstein, CNBC 4/6 2007

Director of the UN Development Policy and Analysis Division:
United States debt might turn out to be unsustainable in the rest of 2007 or next, putting further downward pressure on dollar
The report called, therefore, for a coordinated strategy that would think about how to adjust global imbalances while avoiding recessionary tendencies in the global economy
RE: A good idea!
United Nations (UN) 30/5 2007

The contrast between the traditional "save-and-then-borrow-moderately" paradigm and the "borrow-it-all" subprime paradigm
The level of wealth, the accumulated assets of American households, has proven to be an important determinant of spending habits.
John Makin 30/5 2007

The fascinating story about
The Pan-European Picnic, and the opening of the border 11th of September 1989
Very soon the news arrived that it was Walburga, the daughter of Otto von Habsurg, to represent the second sponsor of the event at the picnic, at Sopronpuszta.
Read the full story here

Over the past two months, the European Central Bank (ECB) has conducted gold sales amounting to 37 tons of gold.
It is not the ECB’s intention to sell more gold in the current year of the agreement.
ECB Pressrelease 1 June 2007

Paris Hilton starts jail sentence
... reserved for celebrities, public officials, police officers and other high-profile inmates
BBC 4/6 2007

När jag började skriva tyckte jag att det verkade vara en helt knasig ståndpunkt att stödja röda khmererna.
Framförallt efter att jag bott där och sett resultatet av politiken. Men ju mer man närmar sig ett historiskt skeende desto mer komplext blir det. Jag insåg någonstans att om jag varit 25 år gammal 1975 hade jag förmodligen också stått på röda khmerernas sida.
Författaren till ”Pol Pots leende” Peter Fröberg Idling, intervjuad i Sydsvenskan 24/5 2006

Vem kan vara mer lämplig än han att på DNs kultursida - fortfarande dominerad av 68:a-Vänstern - anmäla boken "Vietnam var nära - En berättelse om FNL-rörelsen och solidaritetsarbetet i Sverige 1965-1975
Rolf Englund

Very unusual things going on now
Alan Greenspan said the prevalence of low interest rates throughout the world was one of the things that surprised him as he prepared
his reflections on his past for the new book he was promoting, "The Age of Turbulence."
CNN June 1 2007

Claes Arvidssons “Olof Palme. Med verkligheten som fiende” redogör inte för varför Birgitta Dahl och kommittén tog fel i fråga om vad som hände i Kambodja
Enn Kokk 19/4 2007

The G7 should, instead, be replaced by a multilateral body that can address such issues more effectively.
Martin Wolf FT 30/5 2007

Sir, Martin Wolf is right in calling for a multilateral forum to address the problem of global imbalances. Uncharacteristically, he neglects to mention that such a forum already exists: the "multilateral consultations" set up last year under the auspices of the International Monetary Fund.
By John Lipsky, FT Letter June 1 2007

Saras kök
Jag har gillat dem skarpt - häpnar över vilken ilska det rör upp
Det är personerna och deras uppträdande och samspråk som väcker anstöt. Flamsigt och tramsigt, bimbo-teve, orgier i självgodhet
Leif Furhammar DN kultur 2/6 2007

Min första artikel i en stor tidning
Vad gör vi åt befolkningsexplosionen?
Rolf Englund Svenska Dagbladet, Fritt Forum (dåtidens Brännpunkt) 4/8 1967

So why hasn’t the unemployment rate already risen?
The short answer to the puzzle is that the labor force participation rate has fallen, accounting fully for the drop from 4.7% to 4.5% for the unemployment rate over the last year.
Paul McCulley, May 2007

På Kroatiens steniga kust bor Carl Bildt och Anna Maria Corazza Bildt skattefritt
Fokus 1/6 2007

Finansmannen och förläggaren Tomas Fischer är starkt kritisk till Riksbankens guldutförsäljning
"Sverige förlorar miljarder på att sälja sitt guld"
Dagens Industri 29/5 2007

Rome, Habsburg and the European Union
Archduchess Walburga of Austria
Ledamot av utrikesutskottet (m)

former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers described himself as a “chastened prophet” – a description that former Chairman of the Fed Paul Volcker also embraced.
Both warned about the risks associated with large US current account deficits several years ago.
Brad Setser May 25, 2007

New home construction in the U.S. may take until 2011 to return to last year's level,
said chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders
May 29 2007 Bloomberg

6. Borrkärnorna från Antarktis och Grönlands isar visar att jorden först blev varmare, och sedan höjdes halten av växthusgaser i atmosfären.
Svar: Det är alldeles riktigt....
Vetenskapsredaktionen, DN 27/5 2007

Det var jag som betalade Ebbe Carlssons privatspaningar efter Olof Palmes mördare.
Tomas Fischer, Fokus nr 19 - 25/5 2007

The median price of a new home sold in April plunged 10.9 percent from a year earlier
It was the sharpest year-over-year drop in median new home prices since December 1970 and the biggest month-to-month drop on record.
CNN 24/5 2007

The burden of supporting the world economy can hardly rest indefinitely on the shoulders of Anglo-American shoppers and home owners.
Samuel Brittan 11/5 2007

Kuwait on Sunday removed its currency peg to the US dollar
owing to the "detrimental effects of the pegging system to the national economy"
21/5 2007

Alan Greenspan said he was concerned Chinese stocks might undergo a ``dramatic contraction''
after its main stock index jumped more than 90 percent this year.
May 23 2007 (Bloomberg)

På 1970- och 1980-talen devalverades kronan vid en rad tillfällen för att man skulle återställa konkurrenskraften. Det betydde att företagen fick lättare att exportera, samtidigt som svenskarnas realinkomster blev lägre. I släptåg följde en hög inflation som också betydde att köpkraften försvagades.
Resultatet blev till sist en ekonomisk kollaps, numera ofta benämnd som 90-talskrisen.
Johan Schück, DN Ekonomi 12/5 2007

En aktuell film och en roman har i vår ställt mig inför den oundvikliga frågan hur mycket jag blundade för under mina återkommande resor till DDR.
Det blev ganska många eftersom arvet från Brecht levde kvar under de kommande åren.
Leif Zern DN Kultur 6 maj 2007

Kommunistledningen i Nordvietnam ville 1954 inkorporera även Sydvietnam i sitt system. Det kostade enligt uppgift tre miljoner människoliv. Levnadsstandarden ligger på 15 procent av Sydkoreas. Kommunismen har övergetts till förmån för en småföretagsbaserad Coca Cola-kultur. Var det detta FNL-arna ville?
Danne Norling 14/5 2007

FN:s klimatpanel IPCC grundar sina antaganden på att världens befolkning kommer att fortsätta förbruka allt mer av fossila bränslen.
Men sanningen är den motsatta. Produktionen av olja i världen kommer inom högst ett decennium att nå sin absoluta topp - "Peak Oil"
Kjell Aleklett DN Debatt 18/5 2007

A growing glut of housing on the market helped moderate U.S. consumer price increases in April
Rents and owners' equivalent rents, the biggest factors in the CPI, increased at the slowest pace in more than a year, reflecting a flood of vacant units in the rental market.
Click here

Black Swan
What happens if you add 3 billion new people (in a very short time) to the internet, and increase the bandwidth available to everyone by a factor of 20 today with a potential for a factor of 100 in the near future?
John Mauldin's Weekly E-Letter 11/5 2007

Ett annat orosmoln är pratet om något slags ny ekonomisk världsordning.
Vid millennieskiftet hette den Den nya ekonomin.
Nu talas om en Superkonjunktur
Pia Gripenberg DN Ekonomi 13/5 2007

I Isakssons bok /om Ebbe Carlsson/ framstår regeringen Carlsson som en maffialedning vars underhuggare i myndigheterna skänks nåd om de är tillräckligt lojala.
Maffian offrade då – som den brukar – några syndabockar för att sopa igen spåren. SÄPO-chefen, rikspolischefen och den egna justitieminister Anna-Greta Leijon strök med.
Som vanligt klarade sig Gudfadern undan, i det här fallet statsminister Carlsson.
Johannes Forsberg, Expressens ledarsida 16/5 2007

The bubbles that built America
The cycle of over-the-top hype, vicious competition, bankruptcies and consolidation that characterized the late-90s dot-com boom and this decade's real estate market could be the key to America's economic success.
Daniel Gross, CNN May 15 2007

The “core” U.S. economy is doing fine.
That is, if you exclude consumer spending, business capital goods spending and housing
Paul L Kasriel, at The Market Oracle, 14/5 2007

The historical pattern of a 10-year rhythm of cyclical financial crises
The 30% US market crash of 1987, in which investors lost 10% of 1987 GDP, was set off by the 1985 Plaza Accord to push down the Japanese yen with an aim of reducing the growing US trade deficit with Japan.
The 1987 crash was followed 10 years later by the Asian financial crisis of July 2, 1997
Henry C.K. Liu, Global Research, May 9, 2007

Amazing similarity between the last month or so of the rise in Japan that ended on Dec. 29, 1989, and the current advance in the Dow Jones
Bill Fleckenstein, CNBC 7/5 2007

The last time stocks were setting records the way Wall Street is now way back in March of 2000, and we all remember how that ended. A recession and a brutal bear market were just around the corner.
Chris Isidore, senior writer May 8 2007

U.S. March Trade Gap widened 10.4 percent to $63.9 billion
Imports rose 4.5 percent to $190.1 billion
Exports rose 1.8 percent to $126.2 billion
Bloomberg 10/5 2007

We do know, however, that a very substantial correction of the US external deficit, including via a very large decline of the exchange rate of the dollar, is inevitable unless all economic history is repealed.
C. Fred Bergsten, Peterson Institute,
Testimony before the Budget Committee of the United States Senate February 1, 2007

When the euro gains, people in Europe get nervous that it's going to hurt employment, said Robert Mundell, an economics professor at Columbia University in New York and winner of the 1999 Nobel Prize in economics.
I don't see the euro in the $1.40s for long.
Bloomberg 8/5 2007

At Bercy sports arena last Sunday, Mr Sarkozy launched a ferocious attack against the inheritance of ’68, blaming it – among other things – for cynicism, schoolroom disorder, tolerance for criminality, impoliteness, financial speculation, excessive individualism and hatred of the French national identity.
“May ’68 imposed on us intellectual and moral relativism. The inheritors of ’68 imposed the idea that everything was worth the same, that there was absolutely no difference between good and evil, between truth and falsehood, between the beautiful and the ugly,” he said.
John Thornhill, editor of the FT’s European edition, May 4 2007

The final sequence of events that will lead to the implosion of the global economy
Bernard Ber, April 27, 2007

Posterity will regard the economic performance we are now witnessing as a golden age.
It will also know, although we do not, how long this era lasts.

Martin Wolf, FT, 2/5 2007

De femhundra procenten år 1992 ifrågasattes på den tiden endast av ett fåtal, trots att politiken i historiens ljus framstår som vansinnig.
Såväl ekonomkår som politiker på båda sidor blockgränsen stod bergfasta i övertygelsen upp för den fasta växelkursen.
Lotta Fogde, Kolumn DNs ledarsida 4/5 2007

Anders Isakssons bok handlar ytterst om den känsliga och ännu outredda frågan om Ingvar Carlssons ansvar för att mordutredningen kring Olof Palme blev ett fiasko.
Jan Eklund, DN Kultur 29/4 2007

The story right now is generalized euro strength, not generalized dollar weakness
The reasons why the US slowdown didn't lead to an improvement in the trade balance in the first quarter aren't that hard to find.
Brad Setser 27/4 2007

The subject of monetary aggregates has recently re-emerged as a subject of polite conversation among central bankers and monetary economists.
Here we go again. The monetarists are rising from the grave and have spotted a good moment to launch a counter-attack.
Wolfgang Munchau, FT 30/4 2007

Bank of England underestimates the 2008 inflation threat
Tim Congdon and others, FT Letter to the Editor, April 24 2007

Remember the bank panic of 1907? Probably not.
But revisiting it is one way to clarify the differences between the old financial order and the new
Robert J. Samuelson, Washington Post 28/3 2007

Sommaren 1991 hälsade jag på min gamle gode vän Sven Rydenfelt. Vi talade om fastighetskrisen som då startat på allvar, och den tanklösa överbelåningen.
- Ja, det är ju märkligt att människor inte tänker på vad som hände 1907, sa Rydenfelt.
Nils-Eric Sandberg, DN 18/10 1996

Last year alone, Spain started to build 800,000 new homes
Unfortunately, the number of new houses was not just more than France, Germany and Italy combined built last year. It was also more than anybody wanted to buy.
FT editorial 28/4 2007

Euron satte ett nytt "all time high" mot dollarn
upp till 1:3680, tidigare rekordnoteringen från i december 2004 på 1:3670
DI/Direkt 2007-04-27

Mild stagflation, predicted as the ultimate outcome of radical Fed easing in this column five years ago, is now here. So, how does the market react to the bad news? By going higher, naturally. It has now been up 19 of the last 21 trading days. Amazing.
John Mauldin, 27/4 2007

RE: Tystnaden
År 1992 finns inte i Schücks diagram, som början vid 1993/94 då dollarn stod i 8:50
Dollarnedgången ska ses som en del av den omställning som förr eller senare måste komma.
Johan Schück, DN 21/4 2007

Dollarn skulle inte kosta mer än 5:30,
tyckte Bildt, med flera

With goods imports still more than 70% larger than exports, America's trade imbalance remains very much an outgrowth of a serious excess consumption problem.
It all boils down to the consumption response to the bursting of the US housing bubble
Stephen S. Roach, April 23, 2007

I believe US stocks are now very attractive for investors.
Jeremy Siegel, FT, 26/4 2007

Are these devices (derivatives) a clever way to disperse risk or “financial weapons of mass destruction”, in Warren Buffett's phrase,
The Economist print edition 19/4 2007

Man har först en fast växelkurs som förhindrar åtstramningar av ekonomin under högkonjunktur. Och sedan har man fast växelkurs som förhindrar stimulans.
Det hade man under den tid som Lars Svensson var rådgivare åt Bengt Dennis på Riksbanken
och under den tid som Kjell-Olof Feldt, nu ordförande i Riksbanksfullmäktige, var finansminister. Det var då som grunden för sammanbrottet lades.
Rolf Englund på Nationalekonomiska Föreningen 1995


Har ditt förtroende för Lars Leijonborg minskat?

If, for example, banks have incentives to maximise profits by selling as many junk mortgages as possible to borrowers who cannot conceivably repay the loans, then something has gone wrong in our risk-sharing world.
(My favourite are the so-called Ninja loans – no income, no job, no assets).
Wolfgang Münchau, FT 23/4 2007

Potsdam again
May 18-19, 2007 G8 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, Potsdam
Former Potsdam

Jonas Hafström ny ambassadör i Washington
Enligt Ekot har rekryteringen skötts i en sluten process
Det är inte lätt att förstå varför regeringen gör som den gör
PJ Anders Linder, SvD ledarsida 19/4 2007

U.S. February Trade Deficit $58.4 Billion
April 13 (Bloomberg)

Subprime bailout? $120 billion
More than 1 million borrowers may be at risk of defaulting on their mortgages.
CNN 13/4 2007

What is it that people don’t understand about the trade deficit? It’s not rocket science.
Doomsday for the Greenback
Mike Whitney, Global Research, April 11, 2007

Comment by Rolf Englund:
Nice roar, Mike, but I think You got one thing wrong.
Central Bank intervention by China and Japan cannot be called "bland rhetoric of “free markets” and deregulation".
Let's vote and let's float,
that is my philosophy

Ponzi's Scheme by Mitchell Zuckoff
and other books about Manias, Bubbles & Market History

Wanted: a guardian of the world’s financial system
It is time for a fundamental discussion about updating the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement
John Grieve Smith, FT April 12 2007

How to promote employment while protecting the low-paid
The Globalization of Labor, IMF World Economic Outlook
Martin Wolf, FT, April 11 2007

NASD - the brokerage regulator - said that the amount of debt that investors took on to buy securities, known as buying "on margin," had soared to a record $321.2 billion
That topped the previous record of $299.9 billion in March 2000
Reuters, 10/4 2007

På de 600 sidor som Erik Fichtelius redigerat träder en annan Göran Persson fram, inte helt olik teveprogrammens men mer komplicerad - och mer sympatisk.
Barbro Hedvall, signerat DNs ledarsida 11/4 2007

Rolf Englund 2007:
Göran Perssons vackraste tal
(en gång röstade jag på honom)

It will not be loan losses that threaten future economic growth but the tightening of credit conditions that are in part a result of those losses
Bill Gross, April 2007

Aldrig ensam alltid ensam
Det betyder emellertid inte att boken saknar intresse
Håkan Arvidsson SvD-ledarsida 11/4 2007

Det är fortfarande fråga om en statlig fastighetsskatt och inget annat
Johan Schück, DN 6/4 2007

Rodrigo de Rato, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF):
"Global imbalances" biggest threat to long-term stability
BBC 9/4 2007

Anne Wibble:
Den mest extrema varningen våren 1991
kom från Assar Lindbeck

Jag flirtade som tonåring med Stalin,
känns sådär idag

Johan Croneman, DN Kultur 9 april 2007

Housing has acted as a three-legged stool upon which American consumers have been precariously perched. Those legs are:
1) home equity extractions;
2) adjustable rate mortgages;
3) the wealth effect.

Peter Schiff, author of Crash-Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse
April 5, 2007

Sveriges ekonomi har inte varit i bättre skick sedan 1960 - talet. Den sanerades sent men resolut, med början för drygt tio år sedan.
Detta var förre finans- och statsministern Göran Perssons mest väsentliga insats för landet.
Pehr G Gyllenhammar, DN Debatt 8/4 2007

Decline and fall of the American empire
Nemesis - The Last Days of the American Republic, by Chalmers Johnson
at Michael Nystrom April 6, 2007

We are again headed north for a few days, this time with checkbook-in-hand, to look for a home to rent for the next year.
It's pretty amazing how little it costs to rent a house in the mountains with ample space and gorgeous views.
Tim Iacono 3/4 2007

425 000 hushåll i Sverige har fått uppskov med att betala reavinstskatt. Värdet på uppskoven uppgår till 149 miljarder

De som tidigare fått uppskov med sin reavinstskatt på bostaden kommer vid en försäljning efter årsskiftet att tvingas betala den nya skattesatsen på 30 procent.
Detta trots att bostadsminister Mats Odell tidigare signalerat att skatten inte ska tas ut retroaktivt.
DN 5/4 2007
Rolf Englund: Kd är ett riktigt otrevligt och omoraliskt parti

In my mind, deflation CANNOT occur
Charles Zentay, March 28, 2007

Fastighetsskatten slopas

Kudlow doomster???
Caveat Emptor
by Lawrence Kudlow

Kudlow's Money Politic$, 23/3 2007

Leijonborgs gärning består i att han var med och vann valet tillsammans med den Allians han en gång tveksamt sällade sig till. I höst när folkpartiet har landsmöte har han fått brösta sig över det i ett helt år.
Det borde nog få räcka så.
Johannes Forssberg, Expressens ledarsida 3/4 2007

Financial Armageddon:
Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes
Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse
Time 30/3 2007

Don't listen to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson when he steps to the podium to say that the "world economy is strong"
(What's he going to say? "The world economy is unbelievably precarious and we're all going to hell in a handbasket!"?).
Steve Moyer - The Market Oracle, 31/3 2007

Economist Paul Kasriel
a recession indicator that has called six consecutive recessions with no misses
Michael Shedlock 30/3 2007

Social Cycles, Depression and Revolution (Batra)
Michael Nystrom March 29, 2007

The U.S. Commerce Department announced Friday that it will reverse its decades-long policy and begin to impose trade tariffs on some subsidized imports from China.
CNN March 30 2007

Olof Ehrenkrona nyutnämnd ambassadör
som Carl Bildts rådgivare i globaliseringsfrågor.

The Peterson Institute, Bruegel and the Korean Institute for International Economic Policy recently sponsored a workshop on global adjustment. Alan Ahearne, Bill Cline, Kyung Tae Lee, Yung Chul Park, Jean-Pisani Ferry and John Williamson then joined forces to outline
a set of policies that would facilitate global adjustment.
Brad Setser 28/3 2007

Is Ben's Stagflation Quagmire
Bill Gross's Real Grim Reality?
ITulip 29/3 2007

Förste vice riksbankschefen Eva Srejber avgår med omedelbar verkan.
- Jag är jätteglad att få denna möjlighet, säger Eva Srejber.
Johan Schück, DN 30/3 2007

East Capital to launch Balkan Fund and Carl Bildt joins investment committee East Capital will launch the East Capital Balkan Fund on October 1, 2004. The fund will primarily invest in financial instruments in countries such as Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania, Slovenia and Serbia and Montenegro. Carl Bildt, the former Swedish Prime Minister and UN envoy to the Balkan region has joined the company’s investment committee as Balkan expert.
Pressrelease from East Capital 01-09-2004

A market correction is coming, this time for real
William Rhodes, FT March 29 2007
The writer is senior vice-chairman of Citigroup, and chairman, president and chief executive of Citibank
Englund is in good company

Computer giant Dell will start to sell PCs preinstalled with open source Linux operating systems
BBC 29/3 2007

Follow the Money
part of an email exchange between
Graham Makohoniuk and Charles Zentay on the subject of money, inflation and deflation
March 22, 2007

However, sales of new homes have fallen, and continuing declines in starts have not yet led to meaningful reductions in the inventory of homes for sale.
Chairman Ben Bernanke, 28/3 2007

Armageddon hits US housing
House prices to fall, Fed to cut rates in 2007
Lombard Street Research, Gabriel Stein

Göran Persson ville ha Margot Wallström till sin efterträdare
DN/Erik Fichtelius dokumentärserie

If consumer spending declines and interest rates fall or appear likely to fall, there is the real possibility that the foreign lending to the US that has financed imports far in excess of exports will start to dry up,
leading to a combination of higher long-term interest rates and a weaker dollar.
Lawrence Summers, FT

The Good, the Bad, & the Ugly
Unfortunately the problem is ugly. Really ugly.
It's called moral hazard

Charles Zentay

Recession in 2007?
Greenspan's recession comment opened the floodgates for the use of the "r word."
John H. Makin

The market interpreted this as the possibility of interest rate cuts.
Within an hour of the statement, the dollar had slipped to its lowest level against the euro in two years.
Financial Times 22/3 2007

Buy The Yen Now
You may recall that in only three days during the crisis surrounding the 1998 crackup of Long-Term Capital Management, the yen rallied by 18%.
James Grant, Forbes

Is Latvia about to devalue?
Although Latvia in 2007 may not be Thailand in 1997, there are worrying similarities. Lex, Financial Times

På sina håll applåderas nu Åsbrink för att han sagt det som är uppenbart. Jag ber om ursäkt om jag inte deltar i detta.
Jag känner snarare förakt för en person som i politiskt ansvarig ställning låter sig prostitueras till att driva en linje som han tydligen är alldeles övertygad är felaktig i sak.
Carl Bildts Veckobrev v34/1999

Devalveringen 1982
Vad man fram till dess gjort påminde om några av de keynesianska förslag som fanns med i den svenska krisgruppens rapport Framtid för Sverige. Den franska helomvändningen gav kuppmakarna Åsbrink och Sohlman, som inte var övertygade om att krisgruppens förslag skulle räcka, trumf på hand.
Björn Elmbrant, Så föll den svenska modellen

Felaktigt ordval
"/Mona deltog i/... de tuffa krisuppgörelserna med den tidens borgerliga regering, i syfte att rädda kronan"
Johan Schück, DN

Kommentar av Rolf Englund:
1. "den tidens borgerliga regering" bör benämnas Bildt-regeringen.
2. Syftet var inte att "rädda kronan". Syftet var att upprätthålla kronkursen.
3. Kronkursen försvarades inte alls för att "rädda kronan", utan fasthållandet vid kronkursen hade tvärtom till syfte att avskaffa kronan, och ersätta den med euron.
Läs mer här

Bör Carl Bildt dömas till böter?
Back in 2005, the former Thai central bank governor was fined $4.6 billion for his role in the financial crisis resulting from the baht. Rerngchai Marakanond was found by a civil court to be guilty of “grave negligence” in squandering Thailand’s currency reserves in a futile attempt to prop up the baht.
Prison for Greenspan? Barron’s (Week of March 19, 2007)
Randall Forsyth’s stunning column, “In Praise of Folly.”

There are two phases in an asset price bubble that repeat themselves with clockwork regularity.
The first is the phase of the bogus economic theory.
The second phase is a prolonged state of denial.

Wolfgang Munchau, FT

Why the subprime bust will spread
Greenspan has been rightly criticized for letting a housing price "bubble" develop
Henry C K Liu

Det finns en myt, som gärna kolporteras också av journalister, att ingen varnar för en kommande krasch. När kraschen väl är ett faktum skrivs artiklar och böcker om att ingen varnade för det uppenbara.
Problemet är inte att "alla" är efterkloka, utan att ingen vill lyssna.
Dan Lucas, DN Ekonomi

Noted historian Niall Ferguson warns that a geopolitical shock could dry up financial liquidity and shut global stock exchanges, as happened at the start of World War I.

The yen carry trade, the mortgage lending world, the economy in general, complexity theory, the subprime mortgage problems, catalyst for a recession, contagion, the housing market...
John Mauldin's Weekly E-Letter

Henry Kaufman:
Money matters but credit counts
John Authers, FT Investment Editor

Record US trade deficit $857 bn in 2006
6.5% of US GDP

The G-1 (G-7 slang for the US) has traditionally led the opposition to multilateral exchange rate management.
The Fed doesn’t want to subordinate domestic monetary policy to an external target.
Brad Setser Mar 13, 2007

Rörelsens onda genius
Bert Lundins bok om löntagarfonder
Dagens Nyheter

1st Helicopter Drop Now Being Organized
Bloomberg is reporting Senate Weighs Aid to 2.2 Million Subprime Borrowers
Michael Shedlock

I like sociology.
Some of my best friends are sociologists.

But when they start writing uninformed babble like this post on the 'coming housing crash'.....
New Economist

Is this the subprime apocalypse?
(Or is it just a scary story?)

Unwinding the Yen, Unravels Global Stock Markets
The Nuts and Bolts of the “Yen Carry” Trade
Gary Dorsch

Three Bears, No Goldilocks
Part I Financial Armageddon
Part II Crash Proof
Michael Nystrom, March 2007

Every day that goes by without letting the steam out of the global financial market -- brought to a boil by an excess of cheap capital and even cheaper debt -
raises the odds of a financial market Armageddon.
Jim Jubak

David Tice, whose bet against U.S. stocks the past four years punished his Prudent Bear Fund, said that the market is headed for a drop of as much as 50 percent.
Herald Tribune 12/3 2007

Sub-prime mortgages will affect the entire housing market
rather than just a small sector of it.
Paul McCulley at Johan Mauldin 12/3 2007

Chinese purchases of yen
China reportedly wants to diversify large portions of its $1,000bn of foreign exchange reserves out of dollars. It is otherwise likely to sustain one of the largest capital losses in history
Fred Bergsten, Financial Times 13/3 2007
Very Important Article

"Gardera med kryss och tvåa - grundtips etta"
Den senaste tidens fall på Stockholmsbörsen ser därför ut att bli en övergående episod. Snart kommer det hela att mest likna ett hack i en uppåtgående kurva.
Ändå är det bättre att vara förberedd på ett omslag till det sämre, som förr eller senare måste komma.
Johan Schück, DN

Håller pessimisterna på att få rätt om den amerikanska bostadsmarknaden?
Cecilia Skingsley, Dagens Industri 3/12 2007

Prins Valiant
Riddare med svärd, mantel och fyrtiotalsfyrkantiga ansikten med bestämda hakor.
Vilda vikingar i stora skägg, sturska slavar, milda abbotar och kvinnor – drottning Aleta! – En fläkt från en svunnen tid… och alldeles, alldeles nyutgivet.
SvD Kultur

USA:s bolånemarknad en sprickande bubbla
Lennart Pehrson, DN

As a result of the collapse of the subprime mortgage market,
lenders will -- gasp! -- once again require down payments,
filling the market with unsold homes and driving down prices.
Bill Fleckenstein, CNBC

En kvalificerad lärobok för universitetsstudenter kan inte förklara hur växthusteorin hänger ihop och inte ge belägg för underlaget.
Man kan dock räkna ut att teorin förutsätter att hela uppvärmningen sedan år 1900 beror på mänsklig påverkan.
Men det redovisas ingenstans. Det är inte seriöst.
Danne Nordling blog

Without cheap imports, CPI inflation will go through the roof. If you think inflation is high now ...
wait until the U.S. tries to buy imports with depreciated dollars.
RE: A lot of Nice Charts!
Eric Janszen I-Tulip

Equities look overvalued,
but where is the turning point?

Martin Wolf, Financial Times

The worst mistake I have made in recent years in economic forecasting was
to expect the 2000 crash well before it happened.

William Rees-Mogg

Lars Calmfors konstaterade att Sverige hittills har tjänat på att inte vara med i EMU.
"I efterhand kan vi se att Sverige gjorde rätt som inte gick med i EMU. ECB:s ränta skulle vara fel i förhållande till den svenska ekonomin."
I den årliga ekonomiska rapporten från European Economic Advisory Group

The biggest potential danger isn't from a slowdown in the U.S. or Chinese economies.
It's from the pyramid of leverage in the debt markets created by traders and speculators using cheap money from around the globe, and in particular from Japan.
The sell-off of Feb. 27 demonstrated how a panicked unwinding of that pyramid of debt could send financial markets into chaos.
Jim Jubank CNBC

Two recent interviews, one with Yale University economist Robert Shiller and the other with National Association of Realtors Chief Economist David Lereah, paint a wildly divergent picture regarding the state of the nation's housing market.
Tim Iacono

Jim O'Neill, chief global economist at Goldman Sachs:
investment firms playing the "carry trade" had been caught on the wrong side of huge leveraged bets against the Japanese yen.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

“the Fed must take into account the various effects of foreign capital flows on US yields and asset prices, a task that can be quite challenging.”

Could it really have arrived? Are global stocks about to tank in an all consuming way?
Indeed, is this the moment Albert Edwards has been waiting for since 1996?
Of course, Edwards is perhaps London’s best-known doom-monger when it comes to stocks.
FT Alphaville

As the subprime mortgage market goes into steep decline, threatening to drag the whole economy along with it, many people are wondering what could have gone so wrong so quickly.
Business Week

Det vi nu ser under första kvartalet i år är en toppformation, som sedan bör följas av en sidlänges rörelse på hög nivå krönikör Ingemar Carlsson

Risk and Return in Subprime Mortgages
John H. Makin

Eisuke Sakakibara
the former Finance Ministry official said he expects the so-called yen carry trade to continue for some time. He said it's necessary that the trade unwinds slowly.

We are in the bubble phase of a credit expansion. The Bank of Japan will lend money at less than 1%.
This tempts speculators to enter the 'carry trade,' in which yen are borrowed…carried over to dollars or other currencies…and invested
The Daily Reckoning

"At every market peak.. you have excess liquidity.
At the present time a very significant part of what people call excess liquidity comes actually from the American current account deficit".
Marc Faber at Michael Shedlock

Göran Persson om Margot Wallström
Det räcker med att jag hör fanskapet
Lars Adaktusson berättar från en intervju med GP 2003
Viasat Magazine

Vad hände med eftersläpningen?
Förra året var tillväxten den bästa på 36 år.

Den snart miljonsäljande maktbibeln
"The 48 Laws of Power"

By Robert Greene

Wall Street was set to open sharply lower on Thursday as a strengthening yen stirred concern that investors were being forced to unwind carry trades
in a repeat of the risk aversion that sparked Tuesday's global market rout.
CNBC 3/1 2007

The first boomers start retiring in the next few years
They need to sell their stocks
- may lead to a premature rush to the exits.
Michael Nystrom

The day that American consumers stop spending and start saving again could bring serious problems for US growth.
The danger is obvious - at some point, faced with the approach of retirement, many baby boomers will decide they need to rebuild their savings base and pay off debt.
Gerard Baker Financial Times

Under sina år som partiledare, statsminister och EU-sändebud lyckades Carl Bildt bygga upp ett politiskt kapital.
Vad han sedan gjorde i näringslivet var att sälja sitt anseende till högstbjudande.
Göran Rosenberg DN Kultur

Kommentar av Rolf Englund
Nej, vem hade kunnat tro att Carl Bildt skulle ha en framtid i politiken efter det att han som statsminister helt i onödan ha lett landet in i den svåraste ekonomiska krisen sedan 1930-talet.
Läs mer här

Markets fall, sometimes very sharply.
By 3:02 it had dropped to 12,089.02 – off more than 540 points for one of the worst days in history.
John Authers, FT Investment Editor, February 28 2007

Stephen Roach:
Jag reverserar nu min strukturellt optimistisk syn på världen som jag antog förra våren.
DI/Nyhetsbyrån Direkt 2007-02-27

Det är svårt att hitta rationella skäl för en total panik.
Bengt Carlsson DI 2007-02-27

Carry on speculating
How traders have been triumphing over economic theory
The Economist print edition 22/2 2007

Enough is enough - from where I sit, it no longer makes sense to maintain an optimistic prognosis of the world. The odds have shifted back toward a more bearish endgame. I have a gnawing feeling we’ll look back on the current period with great regret.
February 26, 2007 By Stephen S. Roach

Balkan-medlaren Carl Bildt, Lundin Oil i Albanien och Anna Lindh
Klicka här

Tomorrow belongs to someone else
The inter-generational clash between the interests of those who have already grabbed the rewards of postwar prosperity and the young people now expected to support them in retirement.
There is nothing to say that globalisation will be forever.
Philip Stephens, Financial Times 20/2 2007

I ingressen påstås att jag sagt att IQ-tester är manipulerade till kvinnors fördel.
Man gjorde detta på 1970-talet eftersom IQ-kurvorna skilde sig åt mellan pojkar och flickor och denna skillnad ville man inte ha.
Annica Dahlström DN Debatt 20/2 2007

Japan raised interest rates to 0.5%
In July last year, the bank raised the rate to 0.25% following six years of zero interest rates
Financial Times 21/2 2007

Hushållens aktier var i slutet av 2006 värda 632 miljarder kronor. Detta var 97 miljarder mer än i december 2005.
Hushållens aktieförmögenhet är den högsta någonsin
SCB 19/2 2007

Årtionden med höga skatter har proletariserat den svenska medelklassen
Sofia Nerbrand, chefredaktör på samhällsmagasinet Neo, på SvD ledarsida 25/9 2006

The yield curve inverted significantly last fall; we should see a recession as early as the late second quarter of this year
John Mauldin 16/2 2007

Det finns en risk att man blåser upp ekonomin och får en fastighetsbubbla. På 1990-talet fick vi betala dyrt för det i efterskott, säger Ragnhild Wiborg. Hon ser även tendenser till att det kan bildas börsbubblor.
DN Ekonomi 19/2 2007

Interest rates are no longer accommodating for the real economy. On the other hand the FF rate is not high enough to kill financial speculation.
Michael Shedlock 15/2 2007

The carry trade is attractive as long as money borrowed in Yen finds sufficient returns elsewhere and/or the Yen itself continues to sink.
Michael Shedlock 15/2 2007

Om staten drar ned BNP med säg en procent, för att "spara pengar", så kan staten inte i en lågkonjunktur öka BNP med en procent genom att pytsa ut pengar i ekonomin.
Nils-Eric Sandberg 1/2 2007

Shoppingfebern driver investeringar i svenska butiksfastigheter och gallerior rakt upp i Europatoppen.
21,2 miljarder investerades i svenska köptempel och butiksfastigheter 2006.
Dagens Industri 16/2 2007

Can 1.5m people be wrong? Yes, they can.
In a representative democracy, the government can also ignore them. It should do so.
Road pricing is not only a good idea, but an inevitable one.
Martin Wolf, Financial Times 16/2 2007

The Writing on the Wall: China and the West in the 21st Century by Will Hutton
Hutton takes on the most important political and economic story of our time. He has also produced a thought-provoking, wide-ranging and largely correct analysis. For all its manifest achievements, the Chinese attempt to marry a communist party-state with the market is unsustainable.
Martin Wolf 4/2 2007

OECD om Sverige:
Sweden enjoys excellent macroeconomic performance with high rates of growth and stable inflation expectations.
Why has inflation been persistently low?
Average inflation in Sweden has been one of the lowest among European countries since the mid-1990s.
Three supply-side factors help to explain this phenomenon, all related in some sense to increased global integration.
Economic survey of Sweden 2007

Vem är boven i stagnationsdramat?
Svaret måste spåras till den ekonomiska politik som bedrevs i Sverige, främst under 1950- och 1960-talet
Lars Jonung, DN 15/6 2003

Satsa på betjänter och kokerskor så kan staten tjäna miljarder
Löpsedel, Sydsvenskan 2/5 1993

Ingenting nytt under solen
Nil novi sub sole

Why the yen borrowing game could end in players taking a tumble
Peter Garnham and Gillian Tett, Financial Times 15/2 2007

Om Ränteabitrage
Rolf Englund Marknadsekonomisk Tidskrift 1987

The US trade deficit rose 6.5% last year to hit a new record high of $763.6bn
Exports rose 12.8% while Imports gained 10.5%
BBC 13/2 2007

Comment by Rolf Englund:
The problem is that the deficit is so large that the deficit increases even though exports rise considerably faster than imports.
Read more here

Why America will need some elements of a welfare state
Martin Wolf, Financial Times, 14/2 2007

Comment by Rolf Englund:
Now we live in a New Era. The Socialdemocrats under Göran Persson have accepted the Market Economy and said farewell to Socialism;
and the Swedish Conservatives under Reinfeldt have accepted the Welfare state.

- Det händer någon gång att jag skickar ett mail
"Kreab hjälpte Borelius med blixtkarriären"
Peje Emilsson, VD Kreab, intervjuad i DNs pappersupplaga 11/2 2007

Sista Chansen
En skrift utgiven av studentförbundet, med förord av Ulf Adelsohn, från tiden före 1968
av Ola Gummesson, Per-Magnus Emilsson och Rolf Englund

I keep reading how this is all okay with everybody because nobody understands derivatives!
The real, Sinclairian truth is that they understand it perfectly, as derivatives are very, very easy to understand; these are all just bets that were created, bought and sold for one silly equation-related reason or another,
and the Federal Reserve created all the money to finance it. Is that so hard to understand? Really?
The Mugambo Guru 7/2 2007

Timothy F. Geithner, head of Federal Reserve Bank of New York
High on Mr. Geithner’s to-do list is understanding and monitoring the $26 trillion credit derivatives market — twice the size of the United States economy — the fastest-growing financial market there is.
New York Times 9/2 2007

Uppdaterad version
Rolf Englund på Nationalekonomiska Föreningen

Kina ska lyfta ut 210 miljarder dollar ur sin valutareserv

Och då sade jag till Göran Persson...
Rolf Englund vid Nationalekonomiska föreningen den 18 januari 1995


Hur långt är ett snöre?
Hur lång är en konjunkturcykel?

Och var i konjunkturcykeln befinner vi oss?
Rolf Englund 7/2 2007

1925 lade sig Churchill platt och handlade som rekommenderats av "ecucated and resonable men".
Jenkins skriver härom:
The momentum of conventional wisdom swept them (Keynes-McKenna) away... a remarkable example of a strong not a weak minister nonetheless reluctantly succumbing, grudgingly adjustning himself to the near unanimous, near irresistible flow of establishment opinion.
Churchill: A Biography by Roy Jenkins

Two things worry people. The first is the “carry trade”, which involves investors borrowing a low-yielding asset (often the yen) and buying a higher-yielding one.
The second is the low cost of credit, and the rapid growth in credit derivatives, which allow investors to insure against default.
The Economist 1/2 2007

Överskottsmålet ska upprätthållas
Regeringen avser att inrätta ett finanspolitiskt råd
Anders Borg DN Debatt 7/2 2007

Bäckström har både rätt och fel.
De automatiska stabilisatorerna har sina poänger.
Lars Heikensten och Klas Eklund, DN Debatt 4/7 2007


Några faktorer försvårar för Mona Sahlin ...
En faktor är den falska föreställningen att Sveriges goda ekonomi är en följd av Göran Perssons traditionalistiska tid som statsminister, inte av strukturreformerna under Ingvar Carlsson och Carl Bildt.
Hans Bergström 6/2 2007


Den borgerliga regeringen 1991-94 lämnade efter sig ett jättelikt statligt budgetunderskott och havererade offentliga finanser.
Orsaken var i första hand den djupa ekonomiska krisen och massarbetslösheten,
som betydde att skatteinkomsterna sviktade och utgifterna samtidigt steg kraftigt.
Johan Schück, DN 3/2 2007

Kommentar av Rolf Englund:
De dåliga statsfinanserna berodde, som Johan Schück påpekar, på krisen. Det var alltså inte så att Krisen berodde på statsfinanserna, som Wibble,Bildt och Göran Persson trodde.
En fråga som ännu inte besvarats är vad statsminister Bildts rådgivare Lars Jonung, som inte trodde på kronkursförsvaret, gjorde och när:
När sade Jonung vad till Bildt och Wibble?

Sälj inte alla företag, ge bort en del
Väldigt många svenskar står praktiskt taget helt utan sparkapital.
PJ Anders Linder blog 29/1 2007

Nearly 160,000 turkeys will have been gassed to contain the outbreak
The H5N1 strain was similar to a case in geese in Hungary in January.
BBC 5/1 2007

Urban Bäckströms utspel om att ta bort överskottsmålet i de offentliga finanserna.
Den underliggande frågan är rimlig: Är det staten eller medborgarna som ska spara och ha resurser?
P J Anders Linder, SvD 28/1 2007

Kommentar av Rolf Englund:
PJ, liksom Urban Bäckström, blandar, troligen medvetet, samman två saker som inte hör samman; överskottsmålet och önskvärdheten av ett högre personligt sparande.
Läs mer här

En läsvärd rapport med titeln Överskottsmålet - en kritisk granskning.
Kring denna rapport har SN:s VD Urban Bäckström också skrivit en debattartikel
Danne Nordling 24/1 2007

In the US Sunbelt there are new suburbs in which every house sits on an acre of land. Without cars, these places are uninhabitable. And they are settled at a low enough density to make public transport impracticable.
So breaking dependence on the car would involve not just paying for public transport infrastructure: it would involve writing off thousands of billions of dollars of recent private and public real-estate development.
Christopher Caldwell, FT 27/1 2007

Författaren har lagt ned stor möda på sitt verk.
Gunvor Hildén Upsala Nya Tidning 24/1 2007

Olof Palme - Under hans tid utspelades den största striden om Sveriges ekonomiska system sedan krigsslutet.
Var det hans avsikt? Blev han LO:s fånge? Eller trodde han att det koncilianta näringslivet skulle falla till föga och kompromissa.
Danne Nordling 25/1 2007

Barbro Hedvall om Arvidsson Palme och löntagarfonderna

Barbro Hedvall om Arvidsson Palme och Castro

"Revolutionär reformism"; kännetecknade Palmes politiska gärning.
Han var en visionär realpolitiker som nådde sin gräns vid löntagarfonderna.

Göran Greider DN 23/1 2007

Anders Borg: de flesta ekonomer tror att USA:s ekonomi kommer att mjuklanda, men nedgångarna blir ofta kraftigare än man tror att de ska bli.
Direkt/DI 23/1 2007

Överskottsmålet innebär att den offentliga förmögenhetsuppbyggnaden kommer att fortsätta.
Srategin bygger på att vi arbetar med underskott som är betydligt större än vad EU:s stabilitetspakt tillåter
Urban Bäckström DN Debatt 22/1 2007

Kommentar av Rolf Englund
: Framförallt betyder det att allmänhetens disponibla inkomster är lägre - och att därmed konsumtion, investeringar och sysselsättning är lägre.

Undergången är inte här ännu, säger han.
De omvälvande förändringarna av klimatet, världskatastrofen, väntar sannolikt inte om fem år.
Men kanske om femtio år.
Bengt Holgersson som leder regeringens utredning om samhällets sårbarhet för klimatförändringar,
SvD Näringsliv 21/1 2007

The world short term real interest rate is slightly above 2%.
David R. Kotok at John Mauldin 22/1 2007
Highly recommended

Fel på tidsmaskinen
Svensk politiks tidsresa, men här är det 1994, Carl Bildt och Mona Sahlin, skriver Göran Eriksson i SvD 21/1 2007
Rätt årtal borde vara 1992 då man kan se Mona och Carl på samma bild försvarandes kronkursen.

World Economic Forum Davos

“I don’t think there has ever been a time in history when such a large proportion of the riskiest credit assets have been owned by such financially weak institutions
Gillian Tett, FT 18/7 2007

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the nation's central bank, is capable and well-respected around the world.
However, monetary policy can work well only to the extent that financial markets are sufficiently developed to allow the monetary authorities' interest-rate decisions to affect economic activity in a reasonably predictable way.
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 15/12 2006

P J Anders Linder om Björn Lomborg
Själv tycker jag att Sterns åtgärdsförslag
verkar ha rimlig profil
SvD 14/1 2007

The Role of House Prices in
Formulating Monetary Policy

Fed Governor Frederic S. Mishkin, 17/1 2007

Mona Sahlin

Göran Persson

Palme och Castro klicka för större bild

Is the discipline of economics built on sand?
Most economists would answer with a resounding "no". But...
Martin Wolf, FT 1/17 2007

När Mona Sahlin som nybliven arbetsmarknadsminister tilldelades uppgiften att låta skriva en lag som förbjöd fackföreningar att förhandla och strejka var allt klappat och klart.
Politiska partier må ha rätt att tiga om delar av sin historia som de själva helst vill glömma.
Kjell-Olof Feldt, DN Debatt 16/1 2007

Uncertainties about the future development of the US economy run deep.
There are two opposing views of what has happened to it since the early 1990s,
which originate in two very different theories of the business cycle.

Paul de Grauwe, FT 16/7 2007

Let us wait and see if the euro area's fixed exchange experiment really works
Thomas Willett Dunaway, FT 11/1 2007

The more persuasive is this “liquidity” story, the more plausible it becomes that the correction is going to be more painful than conventional wisdom believes.
Commenting on Wolfgang Münchau and Lawrence Summers
Martin Wolf, FT 10/1 2007

The U.S. trade deficit decreased by 1% to $58.23 billion in October
Read more here

Nominal GDP levels are important to the Fed
Bill Gross, january 2007

Ilja Viktorov,
"Fordismens kris och löntagarfonder i Sverige"
The SAF anti-fund campaigns of the 1970s and 1980s are investigated in detail in the context of a neoliberal ideological offensive in Sweden.
Disputation äger rum den 12 januari 2007

Den enda som insett de strukturella förändringarnas betydelse för löntagarfonderna och frågan om huruvida man borde införa socialism eller ej är nog Ilja Viktorov. Har han rätt bör han givetvis få sin Doktorstitel. Men om han bara är en vanlig vänstervriden stolle, då bör han inte få sin uppsats godkänd.
Rolf Englund 10/1 2007

Gold, Hayek och floating exchange rates
Benn Steil, FT 4/7 2007

Money Supply and Recessions
relies heavily on the work of Austrian economist Frank Shostak
Michael Shedlock 9/1 2007

Carl Bildt är regeringens klarast lysande medlem
Förtroendet för Carl Bildt rubbas inte av optionerna i Vostok Nafta.
DN huvudledare 9/1 2006

Han uppger att vinsten kommer att deklareras som inkomst av tjänst.
Skatteinformation från KPMG:
Som kapitalvinst räknas även vinst på options- och terminsavtal vare sig det är fråga om standardiserade avtal eller inte.

Daniel Tarschys ny utrikesminister?

Forecast 2007: The Goldilocks Recession
John Mauldin 5/1 2007

Den 23 december avslöjade Expressen att Bildt egentligen inte borde ha haft de där pengarna. När Bildt lämnade Vostok Naftas styrelse för att bli utrikesminister försvann formellt hans optionsrätt, nämligen. Men i efterhand beslutade styrelsen att han skulle få behålla optionerna trots allt
Bildts påståenden att det skulle vara "juridiskt omöjligt" att avstå optionerna är i alla led struntprat.
Expressen ledare 5/1 2007

Mona och Carl = Sant

Lars Calmfors:
Ett exempel på missbruk av forskning är Svenskt Näringslivs kampanj inför EMU-omröstningen 2003.

Man byggde upp en pseudovetenskaplig argumentation för att ett svenskt medlemskap skulle ge många nya jobb. Sedan visade man att högre produktionstillväxt kortsiktigt, över konjunkturcykeln, samvarierar med högre sysselsättningstillväxt. Men i slutändan "glömde man bort" att det första ledet handlar om långsiktig produktivitetstillväxt och det andra ledet om kortsiktiga konjunktursvängningar. På så sätt gav man intryck av ett långsiktigt samband mellan produktions- och sysselsättningstillväxt som egentligen inte existerar.

Kommentar av Rolf Englund:
"Man" innefattar Assar Lindbeck

Rolf Englund:
När sade Jonung vad till Bildt och Wibble?
Klicka här

Här hoppade dottern Bungy-jump illsammans med sin nyblivne fästman
Det är att överdriva, tycker Pappa

Tag det i stället försiktigt,
som när Pappa utmanade Marcus Wallenberg på SE-Bankens bolagsstämma

Will the dam break in 2007?
Joseph Stiglitz, The Guardian 27/12 2006

The question is: will the cynics get lucky in 2007?
The good, the bad and the ugly scenarios
Wolfgang Munchau, FT 3/1 2007

Kanske är jag skadad av att under julledigheten ha läst Sture Eskilssons memoarbok Från folkhem till nytt klassamhälle
Eskilsson var under mer än tre decennier ansvarig för det svenska näringslivets uthålliga arbete för att först stoppa vänstervågen i kölvattnet av 1968 och därefter etablera ett brett allmänt stöd för grundläggande liberala värden som frihet och marknadsekonomi.
Thomas Idergard SvD ledarsida 2/1 2006

Many people may not know the name Ben Bernanke.
The huge trade deficit, with its flood of cheap goods, has helped to keep inflation in check. So eventually, the adjustment to the trade gap could involve both a slowdown in consumer spending and at the same time increased pressure on prices
BBC 2/1 2006

Senaste nytt 2006 och tidigare

Latest at this site 2005 and earlier